***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 29.8 31.2 32.6 3.5 88.5 84.3 27.1 28.5 29.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 29.8 31.1 32.6 3.2 84.1 80.6 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 29.8 30.8 32.5 3.1 85.8 80.3 26.5 27.7 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 5 95 100 23.3 24.3 29.7 3.8 89.5 86.6 19.5 21.6 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 30.3 31.1 30.6 3.1 84.5 80.7 26.9 28.2 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 29.0 29.7 26.4 1.7 77.8 73.2 25.6 26.7 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 29.9 30.8 32.5 3.4 86.8 83.6 26.3 27.8 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 18.0 18.6 27.9 2.7 83.5 78.1 15.0 16.2 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 29.6 30.7 31.1 2.8 83.8 79.5 26.6 27.7 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 29.4 30.2 28.9 2.8 84.8 79.4 26.3 27.4 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 29.8 30.3 30.5 2.5 79.2 75.9 26.6 28.1 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 28.6 29.3 29.0 2.2 77.6 74.0 25.4 26.5 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 29.6 30.3 29.1 1.3 69.9 66.9 27.2 28.1 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 29.3 30.6 31.0 3.3 88.0 81.7 26.9 27.6 28.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 30.8 31.9 32.6 3.2 85.0 83.2 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 30.7 30.8 29.4 1.8 73.4 71.2 27.3 29.1 30.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 29.7 30.7 32.5 3.5 87.1 83.0 26.4 27.2 28.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 28.3 29.5 28.1 3.0 85.3 80.0 25.6 26.3 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 29.4 30.6 32.6 3.2 84.8 80.3 26.6 27.4 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 24.2 25.8 26.1 3.1 87.5 80.9 20.8 22.4 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 30.0 31.0 32.4 3.4 87.1 82.6 26.6 27.8 29.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 29.7 31.4 32.5 3.6 88.3 84.0 27.2 27.9 28.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 29.2 30.7 32.5 3.1 85.5 79.4 26.6 27.5 28.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 29.0 30.0 30.8 3.1 85.4 80.5 26.1 27.1 28.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 30.1 31.3 31.5 3.5 88.2 84.4 26.6 28.0 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 29.3 29.8 28.0 1.6 73.0 69.2 27.1 27.7 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 29.8 30.8 32.0 3.6 89.3 85.5 26.2 27.4 28.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 31.1 31.9 30.6 3.2 85.8 83.1 27.9 29.0 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 23.9 25.1 27.3 3.1 85.9 80.6 20.9 21.7 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 29.9 30.6 32.5 3.1 84.9 80.5 26.7 27.7 28.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------