***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 16.6 16.6 21.0 1.4 74.5 68.5 15.3 15.7 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 16.4 16.5 20.8 1.3 72.7 67.3 15.5 15.8 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 18.4 18.8 21.2 1.2 74.3 67.2 16.9 17.5 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 14.2 14.4 18.3 1.2 74.8 67.1 12.7 13.4 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 15.3 15.3 18.1 1.0 70.5 64.5 13.7 14.8 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.4 15.6 0.5 64.9 59.4 13.2 13.9 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 17.1 17.0 21.0 1.4 72.9 68.8 15.2 16.4 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 9.6 9.8 15.9 0.9 72.0 64.3 8.1 8.9 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 16.2 16.4 18.1 1.0 71.2 65.3 15.5 15.7 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 16.2 16.5 16.6 1.0 73.4 65.7 15.2 15.5 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.7 16.3 17.6 0.8 68.6 62.4 14.7 15.4 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.7 14.6 16.6 0.7 67.1 60.9 12.6 13.5 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.5 15.3 0.3 60.1 56.1 14.1 15.2 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 16.9 17.2 18.2 1.1 77.7 67.9 15.6 16.1 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 18.1 18.5 19.6 1.0 70.8 64.0 16.3 17.0 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.5 16.5 0.6 65.2 59.4 15.3 16.0 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 17.4 17.6 20.7 1.4 75.4 69.2 15.9 16.5 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 15.0 15.1 15.6 1.0 75.2 66.4 13.3 14.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 16.7 16.7 20.9 1.2 73.5 66.8 15.1 15.8 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 11.0 11.3 13.1 0.9 73.2 65.9 9.7 10.2 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 16.4 16.7 19.9 1.3 76.3 67.8 15.0 15.7 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 16.2 16.1 20.5 1.3 74.9 67.9 14.9 15.6 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 16.1 16.4 20.7 1.2 75.3 66.8 14.7 15.2 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 16.9 17.0 17.9 1.1 76.5 67.0 15.6 16.3 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 16.2 16.4 19.5 1.5 75.5 69.0 14.7 15.5 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.2 15.1 0.3 57.7 55.9 14.1 15.0 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 16.4 16.3 20.2 1.5 75.4 69.4 14.5 15.2 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 15.4 15.5 18.4 1.0 71.2 63.9 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 13.8 14.0 15.0 1.0 75.1 66.2 12.4 12.9 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 16.9 16.7 21.0 1.2 71.3 66.8 14.9 16.0 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------