***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.07.2021.-18.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 16.4 17.1 20.3 1.8 80.2 75.5 14.3 15.0 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 16.2 17.2 19.9 1.6 80.1 73.7 14.1 14.9 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 18.6 19.1 20.4 1.6 78.3 74.2 16.5 17.2 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 14.5 14.9 17.7 1.8 82.0 78.4 11.8 12.5 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 15.3 15.9 18.1 1.6 79.5 75.2 13.3 14.2 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 14.1 14.3 15.2 1.2 78.5 73.7 11.8 13.1 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 16.6 17.2 20.1 1.7 81.2 75.4 14.9 15.5 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 9.4 9.8 15.5 1.5 79.4 75.5 7.7 8.5 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 16.2 16.7 18.1 1.5 79.3 74.6 14.2 14.7 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 15.8 16.2 16.3 1.6 80.5 76.0 14.2 14.6 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 15.9 16.2 17.7 1.4 78.4 74.6 14.0 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 13.7 13.9 16.5 1.4 77.4 73.0 12.1 13.1 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 14.9 15.0 15.9 1.0 72.7 69.6 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 16.7 17.3 17.9 1.6 81.4 76.2 15.1 15.7 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 17.6 17.9 19.8 1.8 82.6 80.2 15.8 16.4 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 16.3 16.1 16.7 1.1 73.6 70.6 14.2 15.2 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 17.2 17.6 19.7 1.7 80.4 75.2 15.4 16.5 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 14.6 15.0 15.5 1.5 81.3 75.0 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 16.2 16.6 20.1 1.6 79.8 73.9 14.6 15.4 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 10.3 10.9 13.3 1.4 79.3 74.1 8.8 9.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 16.1 16.7 19.6 1.8 81.1 77.1 13.8 14.7 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 15.8 16.2 19.9 1.7 80.9 75.5 14.3 15.1 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 16.0 16.3 20.1 1.6 79.0 74.1 14.1 15.1 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 16.6 17.3 17.8 1.5 80.7 75.4 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 15.9 16.4 19.2 1.9 80.1 76.4 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 14.7 14.6 15.1 0.9 70.6 67.5 13.3 14.1 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 16.1 16.9 19.7 1.8 80.5 75.9 13.8 14.5 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 15.2 15.5 18.2 1.6 81.0 77.8 13.1 14.4 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 13.3 13.9 14.8 1.5 82.1 76.3 11.5 12.0 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 16.5 17.1 20.2 1.6 79.2 73.3 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------