***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.07.2021.-11.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 16.8 17.7 21.1 2.8 90.6 89.1 14.8 15.6 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 16.5 16.9 20.8 2.6 88.9 86.5 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 18.3 19.4 21.1 2.6 89.7 87.6 16.1 17.4 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 14.0 14.7 18.3 2.5 88.6 88.6 11.1 12.3 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 15.2 15.9 19.0 2.4 88.9 87.9 13.2 13.8 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 14.2 14.8 15.3 1.7 85.8 84.1 11.9 12.8 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 16.5 17.4 21.0 2.9 89.8 88.2 14.8 15.3 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 9.1 9.9 15.8 2.1 90.2 87.8 7.4 8.0 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 16.2 16.8 18.9 2.2 89.9 88.1 14.0 15.4 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 3 97 100 16.2 16.8 16.9 2.1 90.7 88.3 14.0 15.0 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 16.0 16.9 18.4 2.1 88.7 86.8 14.2 15.0 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 13.9 14.9 17.0 2.0 87.3 85.6 11.9 12.7 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 15.6 15.8 16.4 1.2 78.3 76.2 13.1 14.4 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 17.0 17.9 18.6 2.3 92.2 89.1 15.1 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 18.0 18.6 20.5 2.4 89.4 89.0 15.5 16.3 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 16.5 16.8 17.4 1.6 83.5 81.7 14.7 15.7 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 16.6 17.8 20.6 2.7 90.0 87.1 15.0 15.9 16.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 15.0 15.9 16.2 2.1 90.3 88.1 12.3 13.0 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 16.2 16.8 20.9 2.6 89.0 86.6 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 10.6 11.4 14.3 2.1 89.7 88.1 8.4 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 16.2 17.3 20.4 2.6 91.5 89.9 13.8 15.3 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 15.8 17.2 20.9 2.8 91.1 88.4 14.3 15.0 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 15.8 16.8 20.8 2.5 89.4 86.6 14.0 14.3 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 16.5 17.0 18.7 2.3 91.0 88.6 14.8 15.5 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 16.1 17.7 20.0 2.6 89.8 88.0 14.3 15.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 12 88 100 15.1 15.5 15.5 1.5 82.8 80.0 12.9 14.0 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 16.4 18.0 20.5 2.8 89.9 88.8 14.4 15.2 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 15.7 16.2 18.9 2.4 88.6 88.6 13.2 14.0 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 3 97 100 13.6 14.1 15.4 2.1 91.1 88.7 11.3 12.0 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 16.6 17.3 21.0 2.6 88.7 86.9 14.9 15.5 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------