***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 25.8 31.4 32.6 80.1 40.8 41.1 24.0 38.0 51.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 30.8 40.7 32.7 88.1 57.2 45.8 33.3 39.2 57.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 28.3 34.4 30.8 75.9 42.5 38.2 30.6 39.7 57.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 32.4 53.1 28.7 76.0 46.4 39.5 31.9 53.3 74.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 30.3 41.9 28.0 74.0 44.9 38.9 33.5 46.9 62.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 31.5 54.8 33.9 87.1 55.6 46.4 37.6 53.4 58.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 27.9 40.0 32.6 88.0 56.6 46.5 28.7 37.8 48.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 48.1 64.0 32.1 79.7 45.9 39.0 52.3 65.9 101.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 30.5 38.0 28.0 68.6 37.8 36.7 33.4 46.8 55.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 39.2 46.1 33.1 73.8 40.9 37.4 43.3 49.6 88.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 23.5 36.0 27.4 77.1 46.8 39.1 28.4 38.7 52.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 27.4 48.6 26.3 79.6 46.4 39.2 36.1 49.8 78.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 26.0 43.5 27.9 80.8 52.3 43.4 21.8 42.9 47.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 42.8 56.4 36.2 73.5 41.1 34.8 53.2 59.3 82.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 21.0 33.3 24.2 77.9 51.1 43.7 18.5 32.4 51.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 21.6 37.6 27.2 78.7 49.7 41.9 21.9 38.0 42.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 45.5 43.5 33.7 93.5 60.3 48.6 30.2 38.1 55.9 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 40.0 52.9 37.6 74.9 39.1 37.0 48.7 58.6 72.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 29.3 41.6 31.9 84.2 50.6 42.2 30.7 41.6 66.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 35.0 48.2 40.0 82.7 42.1 38.9 40.7 54.6 63.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 31.2 38.8 29.1 72.2 40.3 37.7 32.0 45.2 61.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 36.1 48.6 32.8 87.2 52.1 43.4 38.5 48.3 68.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 29.5 41.3 31.1 77.9 39.5 37.0 39.1 48.5 61.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 42.7 55.0 34.3 75.3 41.9 36.9 43.7 66.3 72.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 29.6 39.3 35.3 82.0 43.6 41.8 29.5 45.2 58.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 18.3 43.4 24.4 94.9 58.6 46.9 18.4 28.3 49.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 30.3 43.0 36.1 82.2 43.9 42.1 31.0 45.8 62.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 25.6 44.0 26.3 75.6 49.4 40.9 32.0 44.0 62.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 58.3 64.2 40.7 78.3 40.1 37.2 62.1 74.0 92.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 28.8 35.6 32.6 85.8 51.3 44.0 28.8 35.1 62.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------