***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.4 10.6 4.2 68.0 64.0 47.4 0.8 3.6 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.4 3.8 69.1 65.5 49.1 0.4 4.1 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.0 8.4 3.7 52.2 59.2 45.5 0.7 4.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.1 22.7 4.1 71.4 65.5 48.1 2.1 6.7 22.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.6 15.1 3.9 65.1 67.0 47.1 0.2 5.6 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 11.1 10.1 4.4 66.6 64.7 47.4 0.7 5.4 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 6.9 10.5 4.4 83.5 67.5 52.2 1.3 4.2 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 20.2 19.3 4.4 63.0 61.2 46.7 3.7 13.1 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 1.4 12.9 3.9 57.7 62.8 42.0 0.1 3.2 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 15.1 12.0 4.7 60.5 61.3 45.2 3.0 8.1 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.7 11.0 3.3 56.7 63.0 46.3 1.0 6.2 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.4 12.0 3.3 62.6 63.9 46.5 0.1 5.2 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.3 15.2 3.4 68.3 66.5 48.4 0.8 6.1 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.4 12.2 5.0 59.5 58.2 43.1 1.4 8.8 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.7 8.7 3.9 81.5 67.5 47.4 1.2 3.8 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 8.8 9.5 3.3 60.0 64.0 47.0 0.9 5.3 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 12.6 19.0 5.0 91.8 69.4 50.2 2.8 5.6 16.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 20.7 18.8 5.3 60.8 58.9 44.3 1.6 12.5 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 10.5 14.1 3.6 59.0 62.3 47.0 0.5 3.8 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.4 11.4 6.0 70.6 58.1 46.4 2.4 9.1 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.6 16.5 3.3 53.5 61.4 43.8 0.9 6.5 22.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 13.5 25.6 5.0 84.9 67.3 48.6 3.1 6.1 25.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.7 3.8 54.4 58.4 43.8 1.3 5.1 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.1 11.7 4.3 52.5 58.4 43.9 2.0 9.4 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 14.1 16.1 4.3 69.6 63.8 47.8 0.3 10.5 17.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.9 21.0 3.0 78.6 69.7 51.6 0.9 7.3 18.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.8 4.9 75.1 65.0 48.4 1.6 3.6 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 1.9 13.9 4.1 72.9 66.8 47.6 2.6 4.4 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 21.7 22.3 5.8 63.4 59.0 46.7 10.3 16.1 31.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.4 10.1 3.8 66.7 65.2 48.6 1.3 4.3 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------