***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 6.5 9.1 6.8 79.7 62.6 44.2 1.1 2.7 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 1.2 6.0 6.7 77.9 60.7 42.6 0.7 2.9 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 1.9 7.8 6.4 73.0 57.9 38.4 1.4 4.6 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 2.7 9.3 5.4 61.7 57.4 38.5 0.7 6.7 17.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 1.3 7.4 5.3 62.1 59.8 40.4 0.3 2.9 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 1.6 12.7 8.6 87.6 68.8 42.2 0.7 3.9 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.8 5.0 6.3 76.2 62.6 44.0 1.2 3.8 6.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 3.9 11.1 5.6 67.3 55.2 36.7 3.3 10.8 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 0.5 2.2 5.3 55.3 58.4 38.1 0.0 1.1 5.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 1.9 5.7 5.9 59.6 54.0 36.2 2.6 5.0 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 1.7 7.8 4.7 70.7 60.4 42.2 0.3 4.1 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 1.5 8.2 5.0 72.8 61.0 40.9 0.2 4.6 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 0.6 3.9 6.4 76.8 66.3 43.6 0.1 1.6 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 2.4 10.4 7.8 70.7 55.1 34.5 1.4 7.1 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 0.8 7.7 4.7 66.7 66.7 42.8 0.1 1.8 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 1.3 7.5 5.5 70.9 66.8 41.4 1.7 3.4 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.0 6.3 6.6 80.2 63.6 46.4 2.0 2.9 7.2 29 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 1.8 5.7 7.6 65.0 50.9 34.4 1.4 5.6 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 1.8 7.8 7.0 83.8 60.9 39.3 1.3 4.6 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 1.9 7.8 8.8 77.6 57.6 39.4 0.9 5.9 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 1.5 6.4 5.7 59.3 57.3 36.2 0.1 4.1 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.0 6.3 7.1 79.5 63.2 44.1 1.9 4.6 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.4 8.6 7.1 89.0 63.6 37.0 0.7 5.9 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.0 9.3 7.1 71.3 54.4 34.8 1.3 7.7 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.0 9.8 6.6 72.8 61.9 43.3 0.6 4.2 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 0.1 6.2 6.1 106.0 71.9 44.6 0.0 0.3 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 9.5 9.7 6.9 75.8 61.4 42.7 1.3 6.6 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 1.6 9.9 5.1 62.7 62.3 41.6 0.1 3.3 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 2.8 10.5 8.5 70.9 52.7 36.5 3.0 8.6 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.6 8.1 7.0 78.9 62.1 40.5 2.0 5.6 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------