***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 4.4 11.8 8.5 64.8 56.4 35.8 4.0 8.9 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 4.5 10.9 9.5 79.0 57.6 42.9 4.0 10.4 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 3.4 8.5 8.4 64.9 49.8 37.8 2.7 8.6 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.5 9.6 7.4 63.1 53.1 36.7 4.0 8.7 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 4.9 10.8 8.0 64.8 55.7 38.1 7.7 10.1 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 2.8 7.1 7.6 62.2 51.4 35.9 3.6 7.0 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.6 7.2 9.6 79.7 58.1 41.5 2.5 6.0 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 8.5 25.9 9.6 80.6 58.3 35.7 10.7 19.8 28.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 3.5 7.5 7.8 63.2 50.9 36.6 3.3 7.2 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 5.4 15.4 9.7 75.1 54.9 37.0 6.0 14.9 20.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.8 12.8 8.8 73.6 55.0 37.7 3.1 9.4 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 4.9 17.8 8.2 78.9 58.0 35.9 6.6 16.4 23.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.2 14.1 7.6 71.5 62.6 38.0 3.7 6.9 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 5.5 14.5 9.1 66.6 52.4 35.8 5.4 12.9 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 1.5 5.6 7.4 73.3 60.0 39.2 1.0 3.5 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.3 13.5 7.6 69.6 59.1 36.1 3.1 8.4 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.2 13.3 9.8 86.4 60.6 44.4 3.7 9.0 16.5 29 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 5.4 16.2 10.4 75.1 56.2 34.4 6.7 12.9 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 5.0 12.0 8.8 73.2 54.0 40.8 6.8 10.6 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 5.9 13.7 12.1 86.4 57.7 35.9 7.2 13.1 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 4.1 9.1 8.4 66.3 51.0 37.0 4.9 9.0 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 4.5 13.5 8.8 78.6 56.4 42.4 3.9 9.3 20.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 2.9 8.5 8.1 66.7 50.4 36.0 5.1 8.3 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 4.7 12.5 8.9 68.2 56.2 35.3 6.7 12.1 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 4.2 12.4 10.5 71.6 56.7 41.2 5.3 8.4 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 2.7 9.8 8.5 89.3 61.7 41.2 2.6 6.6 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 3.9 9.0 10.0 67.1 56.3 38.7 3.5 7.1 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.4 8.3 6.8 66.5 57.9 36.0 2.3 6.8 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 12.5 19.4 12.5 81.7 56.2 36.5 14.9 18.9 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 3.0 6.8 8.9 73.6 53.6 40.2 3.3 6.4 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------