***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.07.2016.-10.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 8.1 14.1 13.1 101.7 65.6 52.4 1.1 4.2 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.8 17.8 12.6 116.1 71.7 52.8 4.0 6.1 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.4 14.0 12.4 104.0 65.0 49.9 2.8 8.1 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.3 11.9 11.8 102.2 67.0 51.4 2.3 5.5 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.5 14.0 10.9 98.8 67.4 51.0 2.8 9.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 14.3 15.0 13.4 131.6 72.7 57.7 3.7 9.9 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 12.9 18.0 12.3 107.2 67.9 53.8 7.0 9.0 17.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 9.9 21.1 12.5 96.2 61.5 49.1 11.8 16.8 22.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.8 15.2 10.9 90.7 62.9 49.0 3.2 6.9 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.6 17.2 12.8 90.1 60.0 49.1 6.9 12.8 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.9 10.6 10.6 97.5 64.4 49.5 4.1 7.3 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.3 10.6 9.8 94.3 61.1 47.3 3.4 6.8 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.9 10.4 99.6 61.9 49.2 2.2 4.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.9 20.9 14.3 90.0 59.0 46.2 6.1 13.5 27.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.5 6.3 8.2 89.4 67.6 54.0 0.5 3.0 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.9 9.5 10.8 104.5 65.8 50.4 4.3 7.5 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.4 9.2 12.3 112.1 70.5 53.6 0.8 2.9 5.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.3 14.3 14.3 90.1 58.0 48.3 8.2 12.4 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 5.4 18.0 12.5 110.7 70.0 50.6 6.4 10.8 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.0 16.9 13.1 91.5 60.3 48.6 8.2 11.4 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.3 12.8 11.8 97.8 67.3 52.3 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.1 16.1 11.8 102.7 67.3 49.1 4.3 7.7 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 5.0 14.7 12.1 94.4 63.1 46.4 7.4 9.4 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 7.0 14.8 14.0 98.2 61.2 48.8 7.1 13.0 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.6 15.4 13.8 106.0 70.7 54.4 3.8 4.7 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.4 12.2 6.8 103.0 68.3 49.5 1.4 5.7 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.7 12.2 14.3 106.7 67.8 54.0 2.7 5.6 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 5.8 10.9 10.3 95.3 66.0 50.6 1.0 2.1 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.3 23.3 14.1 89.1 58.4 48.3 9.6 15.7 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.7 15.4 12.9 114.7 70.4 53.0 4.8 8.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------