***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 28.9 28.7 29.1 -0.1 51.2 51.5 28.2 28.6 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 28.9 29.1 29.8 0.5 66.8 60.7 27.8 28.7 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 28.8 28.9 29.7 0.2 58.0 55.7 28.1 28.7 29.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 22.5 22.5 27.9 0.7 71.0 65.5 21.4 21.6 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 29.9 29.9 28.3 0.5 66.2 61.7 28.9 29.3 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 28.2 28.2 26.1 0.7 69.1 65.5 27.6 27.9 28.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 27.7 28.6 29.3 0.1 57.0 53.7 28.0 28.4 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 17.6 17.6 26.5 0.7 68.4 64.0 16.7 17.1 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 29.0 29.4 28.6 0.5 65.3 61.8 28.3 28.8 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 29.3 29.1 27.1 0.6 67.8 63.5 27.8 28.7 29.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 29.7 29.4 28.5 0.8 67.9 65.3 28.2 28.9 29.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 28.4 28.3 27.9 0.8 69.4 65.9 27.3 27.9 28.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 29.7 29.8 27.7 0.8 69.1 65.6 28.8 29.3 29.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 28.9 29.1 28.3 0.9 74.3 67.3 27.6 28.3 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 30.6 30.6 29.8 0.9 74.4 68.1 29.4 29.9 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 30.7 30.6 28.2 0.9 70.0 67.3 29.4 30.1 30.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 28.9 29.3 29.9 1.0 74.7 68.0 27.5 27.8 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 28.1 28.0 26.4 0.7 67.9 64.0 27.1 27.6 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 28.9 28.8 30.0 0.8 70.7 64.2 27.8 28.2 28.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 23.9 23.9 24.2 0.7 69.6 64.4 22.8 23.5 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 29.2 29.3 29.2 0.1 57.0 55.4 28.4 29.1 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 29.3 29.9 30.1 1.4 81.5 73.3 27.7 28.3 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 29.1 29.4 30.3 1.2 76.7 70.2 27.9 28.3 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 28.7 28.7 28.2 0.7 69.5 64.2 27.5 28.3 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 29.3 29.4 27.9 0.1 59.2 55.3 28.5 29.2 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 29.2 29.1 27.8 1.0 72.5 68.8 28.3 28.9 29.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 28.7 28.7 28.4 0.0 57.3 53.2 27.9 28.5 28.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 30.5 30.5 28.8 0.9 73.8 68.0 29.3 29.9 30.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 23.6 23.4 25.4 0.6 67.5 63.0 22.4 22.9 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 28.6 28.7 29.4 0.1 56.1 54.5 28.0 28.4 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------