***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 27.7 29.0 30.0 -0.2 50.7 49.8 27.4 29.0 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 29.6 29.5 30.6 0.3 57.6 54.9 27.5 29.1 29.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 27.3 29.7 30.7 0.2 56.7 54.7 26.9 29.3 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 23.7 24.0 29.1 0.6 62.4 59.4 20.3 23.2 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 30.3 30.6 29.1 0.4 61.4 57.3 27.3 29.8 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 30.1 30.2 27.0 0.7 66.6 61.2 26.3 28.3 30.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 29.3 28.9 30.2 -0.1 50.8 50.3 27.4 28.9 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 18.1 18.9 27.6 0.6 63.6 58.9 15.6 17.6 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 29.9 30.0 29.2 0.5 60.5 57.7 26.9 29.4 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 29.8 30.2 28.1 0.6 63.4 59.2 26.7 29.2 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 30.9 31.3 29.1 0.7 67.6 60.8 26.8 29.5 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 30.2 30.2 29.0 0.7 66.6 60.0 26.1 28.4 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 31.2 31.3 28.0 0.5 66.2 59.0 27.1 29.6 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 30.0 29.6 28.9 0.7 66.2 60.3 27.2 28.2 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 31.9 31.8 30.4 0.8 67.0 61.9 27.8 31.0 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 32.1 32.1 28.9 0.8 69.3 61.5 27.9 31.0 32.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 28.9 28.9 30.6 0.6 60.9 57.4 27.3 28.7 29.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 28.8 29.3 27.4 0.6 62.4 58.0 25.9 28.4 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 26.8 29.4 30.9 0.5 60.6 57.6 27.1 28.7 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 24.5 24.9 25.0 0.4 60.7 55.7 22.0 24.0 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.8 29.4 29.9 0.1 54.8 53.5 26.8 29.3 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.2 29.9 30.7 0.8 64.5 60.3 27.8 28.8 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 29.9 29.7 31.0 0.9 66.9 61.4 27.0 28.5 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 29.5 29.5 28.9 0.6 64.0 58.8 26.5 28.2 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 29.9 29.7 28.6 0.0 51.9 51.6 26.9 29.4 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 30.7 31.1 28.8 0.8 70.5 61.4 26.4 29.2 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 29.6 29.2 29.2 -0.1 51.7 50.1 26.9 29.2 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 31.8 31.6 29.7 0.8 67.5 62.1 27.8 30.9 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 21.6 24.4 26.3 0.4 60.7 55.8 21.4 24.0 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 27.3 29.3 30.4 0.0 52.9 52.0 26.8 29.2 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------