***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 30.7 30.1 30.0 0.9 65.8 61.6 27.6 29.8 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 30.6 31.0 30.6 1.5 71.9 67.6 27.1 29.1 30.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 30.5 30.7 30.7 1.2 71.4 64.8 27.8 29.4 30.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 23.6 24.0 29.1 1.6 76.7 69.3 21.0 22.7 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 31.2 31.4 29.1 1.4 72.0 65.8 28.5 29.7 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 29.2 29.7 26.8 1.5 76.4 67.4 27.1 28.1 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 30.1 30.7 30.2 1.0 68.1 63.5 27.1 28.8 30.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 18.7 19.0 27.5 1.6 72.6 66.5 16.0 17.6 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 30.3 30.9 29.2 1.4 70.1 65.8 28.0 28.9 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 30.2 30.7 28.0 1.6 72.0 67.0 27.2 29.2 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 30.7 31.3 29.0 1.6 75.0 67.6 28.0 29.2 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 29.6 30.3 28.8 1.6 72.2 66.6 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 30.7 31.3 27.9 1.5 70.8 65.6 28.3 29.5 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 30.7 31.3 28.9 1.8 75.3 70.2 27.2 28.8 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 31.6 31.8 30.4 1.8 77.3 72.2 29.1 30.8 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 31.8 32.5 28.7 1.7 74.9 68.3 29.1 30.1 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 30.1 30.6 30.8 1.8 75.1 71.2 26.7 28.0 30.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 29.2 29.7 27.3 1.6 73.4 67.4 26.8 28.2 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 30.1 30.6 30.9 1.7 73.8 69.6 27.1 28.7 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 24.9 25.4 25.0 1.6 75.0 67.3 22.7 23.8 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 30.2 30.2 29.8 1.1 66.6 62.9 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 30.8 31.4 30.9 2.2 78.2 73.9 27.2 28.7 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 30.4 30.9 31.1 2.0 76.9 72.2 27.5 28.6 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 29.7 30.1 28.8 1.6 72.1 68.0 26.8 28.5 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 30.9 30.6 28.6 1.0 68.4 63.7 28.0 29.5 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 30.6 31.4 28.8 1.8 79.6 69.5 28.3 29.1 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 29.9 30.1 29.2 1.0 66.9 62.9 27.3 28.9 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 31.4 31.7 29.7 1.8 77.1 70.6 29.5 30.3 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 24.6 24.8 26.3 1.5 73.0 66.5 22.2 23.5 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 30.1 30.5 30.3 1.1 68.9 64.0 27.1 28.9 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------