***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 28.1 27.5 28.8 0.5 54.4 55.6 26.4 27.3 29.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 29.5 29.3 29.5 1.2 69.2 62.6 27.0 27.9 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 28.4 28.1 29.3 0.8 58.3 57.8 27.2 27.8 28.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 21.2 22.3 27.7 1.5 70.6 65.7 19.9 20.7 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 28.9 28.5 28.1 1.2 61.8 61.7 27.3 28.2 28.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 28.6 28.9 26.0 1.5 71.1 64.9 26.0 26.9 28.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 27.1 29.1 29.0 0.7 62.6 58.6 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 16.3 17.2 26.3 1.4 65.1 64.3 14.8 15.8 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 28.3 28.2 28.6 1.2 62.4 61.6 26.5 27.7 28.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 27.9 28.6 27.0 1.3 65.2 63.4 26.6 27.3 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 28.2 29.1 28.4 1.5 68.0 64.5 26.7 27.6 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 28.5 28.3 27.8 1.6 68.7 65.7 25.7 26.9 28.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 29.6 29.0 27.8 1.6 69.6 65.9 27.2 27.7 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 27.9 29.3 28.1 1.6 72.8 65.5 27.0 27.4 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 30.4 31.2 30.0 1.7 76.0 68.5 28.5 28.9 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 30.7 30.0 28.2 1.7 70.8 66.5 27.9 28.6 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 29.2 29.7 29.6 1.7 77.8 68.2 26.5 27.8 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 27.0 27.7 26.2 1.4 66.3 64.2 25.3 26.4 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 28.8 29.2 29.7 1.4 74.0 64.4 26.4 27.8 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 23.9 23.7 24.1 1.5 66.9 64.6 20.7 22.1 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 28.6 28.1 29.0 0.7 55.2 57.4 26.9 27.9 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 29.5 30.4 29.8 2.1 83.3 70.4 26.8 27.9 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 29.3 30.4 30.0 2.0 80.4 68.5 26.5 27.7 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 27.9 28.4 28.1 1.4 66.4 63.9 26.1 27.4 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 28.7 28.3 27.8 0.7 55.8 57.8 27.4 28.0 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 29.3 29.8 27.6 1.9 72.8 67.6 26.7 27.8 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 28.3 28.0 28.2 0.7 56.2 57.2 26.4 27.7 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 30.4 31.2 28.8 1.7 75.2 68.0 28.2 28.9 29.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 22.1 23.1 25.2 1.4 65.2 63.5 20.5 21.4 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 28.6 28.6 29.1 0.7 58.6 58.0 26.4 28.2 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------