***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.07.2016.-10.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 27.6 27.2 27.6 -1.6 30.4 35.7 27.4 28.6 29.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 28.6 27.8 28.4 -0.9 41.7 44.3 27.1 28.1 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 26.8 26.8 28.0 -1.4 33.6 37.2 26.8 28.2 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 21.9 21.5 25.6 -0.9 53.2 47.5 20.0 21.5 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 29.2 28.5 26.8 -1.0 45.7 44.8 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 27.5 27.6 24.5 -0.7 54.8 48.6 26.0 27.0 28.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 26.7 26.7 27.8 -1.4 31.9 37.6 26.8 28.2 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 16.4 15.9 24.6 -1.0 44.3 43.7 15.6 16.0 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 28.6 28.1 27.6 -1.0 44.0 44.0 27.1 28.1 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 28.4 27.7 25.5 -1.0 44.4 43.6 26.9 28.0 28.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 28.7 28.4 27.3 -0.8 49.6 46.9 27.2 28.4 29.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 27.7 27.4 26.1 -0.7 51.3 47.9 26.2 27.4 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 29.1 29.0 27.0 -0.4 55.2 51.7 27.5 28.8 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 28.3 27.9 27.3 -0.5 46.4 48.1 27.0 28.0 28.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 29.7 29.4 28.6 -0.7 52.8 50.5 28.5 29.3 30.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 29.6 29.7 27.0 -0.6 55.1 50.2 28.0 29.3 30.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 28.0 28.0 28.6 -0.1 58.0 53.2 26.5 27.6 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 27.5 26.7 24.6 -0.8 43.9 44.9 26.1 27.1 27.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 28.1 27.6 28.6 -0.6 45.5 47.5 26.8 27.7 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 22.8 22.1 22.7 -0.7 44.8 45.6 21.9 22.4 23.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 28.9 26.8 28.1 -1.4 34.3 38.5 26.8 28.4 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 28.5 28.9 29.1 0.5 66.2 59.5 27.4 28.2 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 28.4 28.5 29.1 0.1 61.8 55.0 26.8 28.2 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 27.9 27.2 27.1 -0.7 44.1 45.8 26.4 27.5 28.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 29.3 27.5 26.8 -1.4 36.4 39.3 27.4 28.9 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 28.5 28.6 25.8 -0.4 55.9 51.1 27.4 28.2 29.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 28.5 26.7 27.1 -1.4 32.6 37.4 26.8 28.2 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 29.6 29.8 27.1 -0.7 55.8 49.9 28.4 29.2 30.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 22.6 21.9 23.9 -0.8 42.8 44.4 21.4 22.1 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 26.6 27.1 28.0 -1.4 33.0 37.6 27.1 28.1 28.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------