***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.9 18.7 0.1 54.4 52.4 15.2 15.7 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.9 15.8 18.6 0.3 61.2 58.7 15.0 15.6 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 17.9 17.9 19.0 0.2 56.3 54.7 17.2 17.7 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 13.5 13.6 16.8 0.5 70.5 63.6 12.6 13.1 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 14.6 14.6 17.1 0.5 66.5 63.1 13.7 14.0 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 13.5 13.7 15.1 0.7 76.8 71.2 12.6 13.1 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.2 18.6 0.1 53.9 51.9 15.5 16.1 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 8.9 8.9 14.9 0.6 69.5 67.7 8.1 8.4 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 15.5 15.7 17.1 0.5 63.3 62.6 14.9 15.3 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 15.6 15.6 15.6 0.5 66.1 65.2 14.9 15.2 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 15.5 15.5 16.9 0.7 71.3 68.0 14.7 15.1 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 13.5 13.6 15.9 0.7 72.3 68.9 12.7 13.0 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 14.7 14.8 15.4 0.6 75.7 68.9 13.7 14.3 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.4 16.5 17.0 0.5 62.3 62.5 15.5 16.3 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 17.3 17.4 18.7 0.7 73.9 69.4 16.0 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 16.0 16.1 16.3 0.7 75.8 70.0 15.2 15.7 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 16.7 16.8 18.6 0.5 66.6 63.7 16.2 16.3 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 13.9 14.1 14.9 0.5 64.9 62.8 13.1 13.7 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 15.8 15.9 18.8 0.5 64.4 62.1 15.2 15.7 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 10.2 10.1 12.8 0.6 71.5 66.4 8.9 9.6 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 15.3 15.2 18.3 0.2 57.9 56.0 14.6 15.1 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 15.9 15.9 18.8 0.7 70.6 67.6 15.1 15.3 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 15.6 15.9 19.0 0.8 70.6 67.6 14.5 15.0 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 16.1 16.3 16.9 0.4 60.7 61.1 15.1 16.0 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 15.4 15.4 17.7 0.3 58.9 58.2 14.8 15.3 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 14.6 14.7 15.0 0.7 72.7 69.0 13.7 14.1 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.7 18.1 0.2 56.4 54.9 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 14.8 14.9 17.5 0.6 72.8 67.4 13.7 14.3 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 13.3 13.2 14.2 0.5 67.1 64.1 12.3 12.9 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.1 18.7 0.1 55.8 53.7 15.5 16.1 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------