***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 16.1 15.8 19.0 -0.1 50.5 49.7 15.4 15.7 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 16.2 16.2 18.9 0.0 55.7 51.6 15.4 16.1 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.9 17.9 19.5 0.0 56.6 52.3 17.1 17.5 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.7 17.4 0.4 61.8 55.8 12.8 13.3 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 15.0 15.0 17.2 0.3 59.2 55.3 13.7 14.8 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.9 14.5 15.5 0.5 61.4 58.3 13.0 13.6 14.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.1 19.0 -0.2 51.7 48.5 15.6 16.0 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.1 9.3 15.2 0.4 59.7 55.8 8.4 8.9 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 15.8 16.0 17.2 0.2 57.8 55.0 15.4 15.5 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.9 15.9 0.3 59.7 56.0 15.0 15.3 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.6 16.1 17.0 0.5 63.8 57.9 14.5 15.3 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.9 14.3 16.1 0.4 60.0 56.4 12.5 13.7 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.0 15.1 0.3 56.5 55.3 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.7 17.3 0.4 60.5 57.2 15.6 16.4 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 17.2 18.1 18.8 0.5 63.8 58.2 15.9 16.8 18.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.6 16.3 0.5 62.3 58.7 15.3 15.7 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.8 18.9 0.3 59.6 54.0 15.9 16.6 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 13.1 14.8 15.2 0.3 59.7 55.1 12.7 14.5 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.1 19.2 0.2 58.6 54.6 15.3 16.0 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 9.4 10.6 12.7 0.3 57.0 54.4 9.2 10.5 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.8 18.5 0.0 55.7 52.3 14.8 15.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.0 19.1 0.4 62.1 57.0 15.1 15.6 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 15.7 16.1 19.4 0.5 63.7 59.1 14.4 15.5 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.6 17.1 0.3 61.2 55.6 15.6 16.4 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.8 17.7 0.0 55.3 52.0 14.6 15.7 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 15.0 15.3 15.0 0.4 61.7 57.1 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.5 18.2 -0.1 53.0 50.3 14.1 15.4 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.5 17.9 0.5 63.3 57.8 13.9 14.9 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 12.2 13.5 14.5 0.2 58.8 54.0 12.4 13.0 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 15.1 16.3 19.1 -0.1 53.5 49.7 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------