***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-24.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 16.2 16.1 19.1 0.6 61.8 60.7 14.8 15.8 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 17.2 17.2 19.1 0.9 74.1 66.3 14.9 16.0 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 17.7 19.1 19.5 0.8 67.6 64.7 16.4 17.3 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 14.5 15.2 17.4 1.2 76.4 70.5 12.2 13.0 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 14.9 15.2 17.3 1.1 73.7 69.0 13.2 13.9 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 13.6 14.0 15.7 1.4 80.5 74.7 11.8 12.8 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 16.1 16.7 19.1 0.7 67.2 62.3 15.3 15.7 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 9.2 9.6 15.4 1.2 79.6 72.2 8.0 8.4 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 16.3 16.0 17.2 0.9 69.8 67.1 14.5 15.1 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 15.9 16.2 16.0 1.1 76.2 69.7 14.2 15.0 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 15.5 16.0 17.0 1.2 77.5 72.3 14.2 14.6 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 13.7 14.3 16.3 1.3 79.1 72.7 12.0 12.7 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 14.8 15.1 15.3 1.1 75.0 69.6 12.8 13.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 16.7 16.9 17.3 1.1 75.3 67.9 15.0 15.8 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 17.3 17.7 18.9 1.3 77.1 72.5 15.9 16.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 16.4 16.8 16.4 1.3 77.9 72.1 14.5 15.4 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 17.8 18.4 19.2 1.1 76.7 68.9 16.1 16.3 17.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 14.4 15.0 15.3 1.0 74.4 68.5 12.6 13.3 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 16.5 16.9 19.3 1.1 77.6 68.7 14.9 15.7 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 10.3 10.8 13.0 1.1 77.2 70.8 8.3 9.1 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.4 15.8 18.6 0.8 65.8 64.5 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 16.3 17.1 19.2 1.3 81.2 70.9 14.7 15.3 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 16.2 17.3 19.4 1.3 80.0 71.4 14.4 14.9 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 16.6 16.5 17.1 1.0 72.9 67.5 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 15.5 16.0 17.8 0.8 65.4 64.1 14.5 15.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 14.7 15.3 15.3 1.3 79.1 72.6 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 15.7 16.3 18.4 0.7 63.9 61.6 14.5 15.3 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 14.7 15.0 17.9 1.3 77.3 71.8 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 14.1 14.5 14.6 1.0 74.6 69.2 12.0 12.7 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.4 17.0 19.1 0.7 66.3 62.8 15.1 15.9 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------