***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.07.2016.-17.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 15.4 15.6 18.5 0.5 60.7 55.8 14.3 15.1 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.3 16.4 18.4 0.8 67.0 61.5 13.7 14.8 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 17.5 17.5 18.7 0.5 58.0 56.2 16.1 17.2 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.0 12.7 16.6 0.8 65.5 60.0 11.6 12.4 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.5 16.9 0.7 61.8 58.6 13.0 14.2 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.1 13.5 14.7 0.9 68.0 63.2 12.2 12.9 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.9 18.4 0.5 60.6 57.6 14.8 15.4 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.8 14.5 0.8 65.6 61.2 7.6 8.3 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.5 17.0 0.6 62.9 58.7 14.5 14.9 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.4 15.3 0.7 63.9 59.7 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.1 15.3 16.6 0.7 62.0 59.7 14.4 14.8 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.6 15.6 0.8 64.0 61.0 12.4 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.7 15.2 0.7 63.2 60.3 13.5 14.3 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 16.6 16.5 16.7 0.7 67.6 60.7 14.7 16.2 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 16.7 17.2 18.5 0.8 67.8 60.9 16.0 16.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.9 16.1 0.8 65.0 61.7 14.2 15.2 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 17.0 17.0 18.4 1.0 71.8 64.9 15.2 16.3 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.8 14.4 14.7 0.7 64.3 59.9 12.9 13.5 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.6 16.1 18.6 0.9 68.7 62.7 14.1 15.4 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.8 10.0 12.6 0.8 66.4 62.5 8.7 9.7 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 15.3 15.3 18.1 0.5 59.0 55.5 14.0 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 15.9 16.2 18.6 1.1 74.8 66.4 14.1 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.9 18.7 1.1 71.7 64.8 13.8 14.8 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.8 16.0 16.7 0.7 63.8 59.1 14.5 15.5 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 15.4 15.7 17.6 0.6 64.3 57.7 13.8 15.3 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.6 14.8 0.8 66.3 60.6 13.5 13.9 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 15.2 15.3 18.0 0.5 63.6 56.8 14.0 14.8 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.5 15.1 17.3 0.9 66.6 61.2 13.5 14.2 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.4 13.9 0.7 64.7 60.8 11.4 11.8 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 15.9 16.1 18.5 0.5 61.1 57.9 14.7 15.6 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------