***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.06.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.07.2016.-10.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 14.9 16.0 18.2 -0.5 53.9 48.2 15.1 15.9 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.6 17.9 -0.4 55.0 50.7 14.4 15.4 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 16.2 17.6 18.3 -0.6 51.6 46.6 16.5 17.5 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.2 16.0 -0.4 57.6 50.7 11.3 13.0 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.5 16.9 -0.2 61.5 54.6 13.6 14.2 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 13.2 13.6 14.4 0.2 61.7 58.9 12.2 13.1 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 15.9 15.6 17.8 -0.8 47.3 43.7 15.1 15.6 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 8.2 8.7 14.4 0.1 58.9 57.0 7.5 8.1 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 15.7 16.0 17.2 0.0 66.1 57.7 14.4 15.6 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 15.3 15.8 15.3 0.0 62.3 56.8 14.4 15.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 15.4 15.6 17.0 0.2 62.7 60.0 14.6 15.3 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 13.0 13.2 15.7 0.2 61.4 59.6 12.1 12.8 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 14.9 15.2 16.0 0.4 64.6 63.4 13.5 14.8 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.3 16.6 -0.2 58.3 53.0 15.2 16.1 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 16.7 17.1 18.7 0.3 62.7 61.3 15.4 16.6 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 15.9 16.2 16.4 0.2 63.1 60.1 14.5 15.7 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 15.9 16.1 17.8 -0.2 57.7 54.1 15.3 15.7 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 13.5 13.9 14.6 -0.1 60.5 53.9 12.5 13.1 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 15.6 15.5 18.1 -0.3 57.8 53.0 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 10.2 10.2 12.8 0.1 59.7 56.1 8.5 10.0 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.4 16.0 18.1 -0.4 55.7 50.7 14.3 15.1 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 15.2 15.5 18.2 0.1 60.5 57.4 14.3 15.1 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 14.9 15.3 18.4 0.1 64.7 58.6 14.1 14.6 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 16.1 16.1 16.7 -0.3 59.5 52.3 14.9 15.9 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 15.4 15.6 17.7 -0.3 60.4 54.2 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 14.2 14.7 14.9 0.1 60.5 56.9 13.3 14.0 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.5 18.0 -0.4 57.1 51.6 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 14.5 14.6 16.9 -0.1 60.2 55.1 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 12.7 12.9 13.9 0.0 60.4 55.6 11.5 12.5 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.7 18.1 -0.6 51.5 46.6 15.2 15.7 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------