***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 24.9 26.5 28.4 64.3 39.8 33.2 22.6 45.8 65.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 30.3 33.0 28.8 67.6 39.0 32.4 31.6 37.8 54.4 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 28.3 34.6 28.7 66.7 41.2 34.0 32.9 44.9 60.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 33.6 59.6 35.5 92.5 57.5 45.3 31.4 53.7 70.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 28.8 47.8 31.4 86.3 53.0 43.5 31.4 46.6 55.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 29.9 53.2 39.6 91.7 51.8 44.2 37.6 49.8 64.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 23.8 28.8 27.6 64.1 34.6 30.2 28.7 38.7 56.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 48.8 60.6 31.1 70.3 39.8 35.8 55.0 69.4 98.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 23.0 39.9 30.0 74.6 46.2 38.7 26.9 45.3 55.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 34.8 47.3 33.6 71.8 42.5 36.3 43.3 56.6 94.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 25.8 41.8 29.4 82.2 49.4 41.3 27.7 41.9 52.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 30.3 48.6 26.5 74.9 44.0 38.8 36.1 50.3 78.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 24.5 43.6 33.8 95.2 57.8 47.4 21.9 40.9 47.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 42.3 54.5 35.5 64.0 36.7 31.2 51.1 62.3 82.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 18.5 51.1 34.8 105.7 65.1 50.7 17.8 33.3 51.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 20.5 39.0 31.9 92.2 55.1 45.7 23.1 35.0 41.8 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 25.6 35.4 30.6 69.9 40.0 31.3 30.7 40.2 46.7 29 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 37.1 45.4 37.1 67.9 38.3 33.1 40.8 60.3 72.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 26.9 38.0 29.4 68.8 40.7 33.9 31.6 41.6 62.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 34.1 48.3 39.1 74.0 41.2 35.9 41.3 56.5 63.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 31.3 43.7 28.5 69.6 44.6 37.0 27.1 50.2 60.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 38.3 47.3 32.4 71.7 44.2 33.8 42.6 48.7 70.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 31.0 42.6 30.0 68.3 40.1 34.2 40.0 49.8 63.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 39.2 53.1 34.1 68.3 40.9 33.9 35.2 66.3 72.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 29.7 41.4 34.3 75.3 46.1 39.0 29.6 43.1 51.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 19.5 29.5 23.8 76.7 49.4 40.5 18.1 30.0 48.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 30.1 41.0 31.9 66.9 39.2 33.9 34.0 49.0 57.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 26.3 55.4 35.3 100.5 62.0 48.4 26.3 44.0 63.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 52.9 63.0 39.0 68.6 37.9 32.8 59.0 73.1 89.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 28.2 29.2 28.5 66.3 36.8 32.4 27.9 37.9 59.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------