***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 1.0 2.3 3.6 42.7 48.5 36.4 0.2 2.4 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 1.9 6.3 4.9 57.5 52.6 37.8 1.4 5.6 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 1.8 5.6 4.6 56.5 52.5 39.5 0.3 4.5 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 2.1 6.6 4.2 60.5 56.9 40.7 0.8 5.0 22.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.0 9.3 4.5 67.3 60.8 44.1 0.1 4.2 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.5 6.9 5.0 57.2 54.9 39.8 0.9 5.4 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 2.9 7.4 3.9 44.8 47.3 35.8 2.1 8.3 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 20.6 21.8 7.1 80.0 62.5 46.5 3.7 13.2 23.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 0.7 4.1 4.9 64.3 58.3 41.0 0.0 1.6 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.5 10.2 7.0 72.5 59.4 43.6 0.7 7.2 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 1.7 14.6 4.5 68.8 61.4 46.2 0.6 3.6 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.8 14.0 5.3 80.3 64.8 49.0 0.1 4.8 14.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.6 14.1 4.5 70.0 62.6 43.3 0.8 5.6 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 3.5 11.8 8.4 74.8 57.7 40.3 1.7 9.4 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.9 7.8 3.4 57.5 60.1 42.1 0.8 4.3 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.4 8.8 4.2 68.5 62.4 44.8 0.7 3.5 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 4.0 9.2 5.4 60.7 53.0 37.4 4.1 8.3 20.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.3 13.7 9.2 80.7 60.2 42.3 1.7 7.4 25.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 2.4 8.2 5.5 66.1 54.8 38.7 1.7 6.7 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.0 12.8 10.7 91.8 61.5 43.0 4.0 10.4 14.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.8 11.1 4.4 59.1 57.4 41.3 0.6 6.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.5 19.5 7.1 76.9 57.8 39.9 4.4 10.2 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 2.0 11.9 6.4 76.5 56.7 39.7 1.2 5.3 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.8 11.8 7.6 75.1 59.8 43.1 0.7 8.2 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.6 11.8 4.2 51.1 52.9 38.9 0.1 10.1 17.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.8 16.1 4.5 76.0 63.9 47.7 1.5 7.9 18.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 1.5 3.4 3.8 42.3 48.8 35.7 1.7 3.6 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 2.3 10.4 4.0 61.0 59.5 41.8 2.7 5.6 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.3 21.9 10.1 83.8 60.0 42.9 10.0 14.6 28.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 2.1 5.7 4.5 53.2 50.5 37.7 4.3 5.6 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------