***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 1.2 13.1 8.4 87.1 63.0 44.8 1.0 2.7 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.7 12.6 9.4 107.5 70.3 44.3 0.7 4.3 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.5 9.5 8.7 91.0 63.9 43.6 1.1 5.6 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 2.6 21.3 9.8 113.3 75.1 44.3 1.7 6.7 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 1.1 16.3 7.9 94.9 69.2 43.1 0.4 2.9 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 1.4 9.0 9.5 97.1 70.1 41.6 0.5 3.3 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.5 8.8 9.2 102.8 66.2 41.4 1.1 3.6 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 4.1 10.8 6.0 68.5 58.3 43.4 3.4 8.7 13.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 0.5 4.5 7.4 79.4 65.2 41.8 0.1 1.3 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 2.1 6.1 7.4 74.3 60.2 45.0 1.3 4.4 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 0.9 8.1 5.9 84.1 65.9 42.9 0.0 2.3 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 1.1 8.0 4.9 68.9 59.9 43.5 0.0 2.4 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 0.3 3.6 6.2 78.3 67.4 41.5 0.0 0.8 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 2.3 8.4 8.9 68.0 56.0 39.0 1.1 6.3 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 0.7 12.5 8.5 115.9 75.5 49.8 0.5 1.7 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 1.1 6.0 6.4 86.4 67.6 42.2 0.5 2.9 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 1.6 11.4 9.9 108.4 70.3 42.8 2.0 4.0 10.1 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 2.2 7.0 8.3 69.1 56.6 41.7 1.0 5.4 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.2 13.6 9.0 99.8 67.5 43.9 1.1 5.5 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 1.8 6.3 8.0 72.5 56.5 42.2 1.0 4.7 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 1.0 7.4 8.0 86.2 67.0 43.6 0.0 2.3 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 1.7 10.7 9.8 102.5 69.3 43.5 1.2 4.1 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 2.3 7.5 8.0 81.5 61.3 40.8 0.7 6.1 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 2.3 9.1 8.7 75.8 58.7 41.7 0.9 5.6 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 2.1 8.9 9.5 94.6 68.4 44.5 0.7 5.6 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 0.0 4.7 5.8 87.1 70.1 47.3 0.0 0.0 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.6 9.5 9.2 89.5 64.0 44.2 2.7 6.6 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 1.1 16.0 8.7 109.5 74.4 45.0 0.1 2.8 10.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 3.2 11.0 9.1 72.5 56.9 42.8 3.3 7.6 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.2 12.4 9.4 107.7 68.0 46.0 2.3 5.2 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------