***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.4 4.4 7.2 50.3 47.3 36.5 3.9 5.0 15.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 3.0 5.6 7.8 54.9 48.8 36.7 3.0 5.7 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.0 6.2 7.0 48.5 45.1 34.6 3.1 7.2 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 2.3 3.4 4.6 38.8 41.2 30.8 2.1 6.8 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 3.9 8.5 5.4 46.8 43.8 30.4 4.4 8.8 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 2.7 5.8 6.5 49.1 42.1 31.1 3.0 8.2 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 1.5 3.5 7.7 56.0 47.3 33.8 1.9 4.3 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 13.9 21.6 5.4 41.8 39.3 30.5 19.9 27.0 30.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 3.3 5.1 6.3 50.9 45.9 31.4 3.8 7.5 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 5.8 9.1 6.2 45.9 42.3 31.5 7.0 15.5 22.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 3.8 2.4 5.2 40.9 33.1 28.1 2.4 10.8 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 8.1 10.1 4.8 42.1 37.5 31.1 9.4 17.0 24.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 3.4 6.9 4.0 37.4 42.0 29.9 5.4 9.5 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 3.6 5.1 7.7 46.4 39.5 32.9 4.4 7.8 22.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 1.5 4.5 5.9 52.1 52.6 40.1 1.0 3.6 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 5.5 7.1 4.6 40.7 40.8 33.0 5.1 12.8 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 3.2 6.4 8.7 60.8 51.2 35.1 3.0 6.2 14.3 29 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 7.7 13.1 6.8 43.7 36.5 29.4 12.9 18.9 26.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 3.3 8.2 7.4 53.0 48.0 37.0 5.1 8.7 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 6.8 12.4 6.1 41.9 38.7 29.4 9.4 14.1 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 4.0 7.2 6.2 46.1 44.7 33.0 5.4 9.1 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 4.2 9.2 8.6 57.7 50.9 36.1 2.8 9.1 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.7 6.3 7.0 50.2 46.0 36.1 4.7 8.8 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 6.5 7.1 7.0 44.5 38.2 31.3 6.8 12.2 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.0 7.4 7.8 50.9 48.1 34.1 4.0 8.3 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 2.3 3.9 4.5 44.2 39.6 33.0 3.4 5.2 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.9 5.1 8.4 53.0 47.5 35.3 2.8 5.5 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 1.9 3.0 4.1 39.3 43.9 33.8 0.6 5.3 8.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 14.9 16.8 7.3 43.9 35.0 29.6 16.3 19.8 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 2.4 6.0 7.5 52.9 47.2 36.6 3.3 6.4 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------