***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.1 10.9 9.2 78.6 57.7 40.5 2.0 5.2 14.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 3.4 8.8 6.8 60.3 50.6 33.0 4.8 8.8 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.8 12.2 8.4 76.5 58.0 38.2 3.3 9.8 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.6 24.9 16.9 152.6 77.2 58.0 1.9 4.5 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.7 17.1 13.5 139.2 74.9 55.6 2.0 9.4 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.4 11.8 18.7 160.9 78.3 60.1 2.0 4.8 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 5.1 11.7 6.7 58.2 49.6 33.3 7.0 12.2 19.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 7.1 14.1 12.6 91.4 58.6 46.1 9.4 12.5 22.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.1 15.9 11.3 104.4 65.8 47.1 2.2 7.3 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 5.0 15.0 13.0 94.3 61.2 44.9 5.3 10.3 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.3 14.0 13.9 151.2 75.4 55.1 3.6 5.9 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.1 10.5 11.5 113.7 66.0 50.8 3.5 6.3 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 1.9 12.7 19.1 184.8 82.8 60.0 1.6 4.2 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 3.2 13.4 10.5 71.7 52.0 33.7 4.7 13.3 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.1 19.2 17.0 193.3 85.1 59.5 0.7 2.3 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.7 13.6 16.7 170.8 82.7 58.8 2.4 5.8 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 1.3 4.2 6.6 57.6 47.2 32.8 2.1 4.7 11.6 29 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 5.9 10.2 12.7 81.1 54.5 40.2 5.7 10.1 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 4.3 10.7 7.5 65.7 53.1 33.6 5.4 8.9 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 5.7 12.8 14.3 91.7 57.0 46.2 8.2 11.3 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.6 12.0 9.9 91.7 61.7 45.2 4.6 8.8 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 3.9 9.7 6.9 59.8 51.1 35.2 4.0 9.2 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 4.6 12.8 8.6 73.2 56.4 35.0 4.4 10.6 20.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 4.5 14.1 10.9 85.8 57.4 38.6 7.0 11.6 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 2.6 16.8 12.8 105.4 65.5 47.8 3.2 6.4 17.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.2 8.2 9.0 108.6 69.2 53.2 2.6 4.5 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.7 11.8 10.4 84.0 58.4 42.4 3.4 7.1 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.7 22.8 18.5 180.8 82.7 59.5 1.2 3.5 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 8.2 17.4 12.5 79.6 52.8 40.4 10.0 14.9 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 4.1 9.4 7.1 61.4 53.8 33.4 6.2 8.8 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------