***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 29.6 30.2 30.8 2.0 85.5 81.0 28.1 28.5 29.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 30.0 30.5 30.7 2.0 84.9 80.3 27.8 28.5 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 29.6 30.2 30.9 2.0 83.9 79.8 28.1 28.5 29.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 22.6 23.8 28.7 2.0 86.2 80.1 21.4 21.6 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 30.1 30.4 28.9 1.6 81.5 75.5 28.7 29.3 29.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 28.2 28.3 25.5 0.7 71.0 64.4 27.5 27.9 28.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 29.6 30.0 30.7 2.0 84.9 80.2 27.8 28.4 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 17.6 17.7 26.5 1.1 75.4 70.6 16.6 17.0 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 29.6 30.1 29.5 1.8 83.8 78.5 28.1 28.8 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 29.3 29.4 27.5 1.4 77.9 73.1 27.7 28.7 29.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 29.7 30.1 28.8 1.6 81.5 75.6 28.2 28.6 29.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 28.4 28.6 27.9 1.4 80.2 73.8 27.2 27.9 28.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 29.7 29.7 27.3 0.9 70.4 66.1 28.5 29.3 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 29.1 29.4 28.5 1.4 80.7 73.5 27.7 28.4 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 30.6 31.1 30.2 2.0 86.5 80.1 29.4 29.8 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 30.7 31.0 28.2 1.4 79.8 73.1 29.1 29.9 30.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 29.2 29.8 30.3 1.9 84.5 79.8 27.2 27.6 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 28.0 28.2 26.4 1.0 72.7 67.9 26.9 27.5 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 29.2 30.0 30.9 2.1 85.9 81.0 27.6 28.2 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 23.8 23.8 23.6 0.5 62.1 60.0 22.8 23.4 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 29.6 30.3 30.2 1.7 82.9 76.7 28.2 28.8 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 29.4 30.0 29.8 1.6 81.9 76.3 27.7 28.2 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 29.4 30.0 31.0 2.3 88.0 82.8 27.7 28.2 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 28.9 29.2 28.6 1.4 79.1 73.9 27.4 28.2 28.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 29.9 30.4 29.2 1.7 83.8 78.0 28.3 29.1 29.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 29.1 29.3 27.4 1.2 77.9 71.6 28.2 28.5 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 29.3 29.8 29.8 1.9 85.5 80.2 27.8 28.3 28.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 30.7 31.3 29.1 1.8 85.3 77.9 29.4 29.8 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 23.4 23.4 25.1 0.6 66.8 62.8 22.4 22.6 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 29.6 30.0 30.8 2.0 85.1 80.2 27.9 28.4 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------