***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 30.9 32.3 32.5 3.0 88.3 79.5 27.6 28.4 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 30.9 31.8 32.2 2.8 85.0 77.7 27.7 28.6 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 31.4 32.2 32.7 3.0 86.0 78.4 27.0 28.7 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 25.0 26.2 30.8 3.0 87.3 79.2 20.0 23.3 24.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 32.0 32.9 30.7 2.7 83.9 77.1 27.0 30.0 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 30.3 30.7 27.3 1.7 74.1 69.4 26.2 28.3 30.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 30.4 31.6 32.3 2.9 86.3 78.7 27.5 27.9 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 19.7 20.3 28.5 2.2 77.9 72.9 15.7 17.7 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 31.4 32.1 31.0 2.8 84.8 77.8 27.2 29.5 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 30.8 31.7 29.4 2.5 80.7 74.8 26.9 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 31.6 32.6 30.4 2.7 83.9 76.9 26.7 29.4 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 30.8 31.5 29.9 2.3 80.3 74.0 26.3 28.6 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 31.5 32.2 28.7 1.7 74.3 68.9 27.3 29.8 30.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 30.6 31.3 29.9 2.4 79.9 74.0 26.6 28.5 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 32.1 33.0 31.6 2.9 87.8 80.2 27.7 31.0 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 32.8 33.4 29.9 2.4 81.0 74.7 27.6 31.1 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 30.0 30.7 31.9 2.7 83.9 77.3 27.4 28.5 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 30.1 30.7 28.4 2.2 76.6 71.4 26.0 28.2 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 30.1 31.3 32.4 2.9 85.4 77.9 27.4 28.2 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 25.8 26.2 25.4 1.5 68.6 65.9 22.0 23.8 25.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 31.3 32.4 31.8 2.7 84.9 77.2 27.0 29.0 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 30.4 31.6 31.5 2.5 83.0 75.4 27.5 28.6 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 30.9 31.7 32.4 3.1 86.3 78.5 27.1 28.1 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 30.3 31.3 30.1 2.5 81.5 74.5 26.4 28.3 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 31.1 32.9 30.8 2.8 87.4 78.1 27.1 28.9 30.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 31.4 32.1 29.4 2.1 78.6 72.5 26.6 29.4 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 30.9 32.2 31.5 3.0 88.0 79.4 26.9 28.1 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 32.0 32.9 30.9 2.8 85.7 78.5 27.8 31.0 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 25.4 25.6 27.0 1.7 72.7 68.2 21.1 23.6 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 30.6 32.0 32.3 2.9 86.3 78.1 27.4 28.1 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------