***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 30.1 30.6 30.7 1.8 72.2 67.3 28.0 28.6 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 30.7 31.3 30.6 1.8 72.6 67.3 27.1 28.9 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 30.4 31.0 31.0 1.8 73.9 67.0 28.1 28.8 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 23.3 23.6 29.3 2.0 76.0 69.5 21.5 22.4 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 30.0 31.2 29.1 1.6 70.7 65.1 28.6 29.5 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.4 28.7 26.0 1.0 64.0 61.1 27.5 28.0 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 30.3 31.1 30.6 1.7 71.8 67.4 27.3 28.6 31.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 18.5 18.7 27.2 1.4 69.2 63.9 16.3 17.3 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 30.0 30.8 29.3 1.7 71.6 65.4 28.0 28.4 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 29.0 30.4 27.9 1.5 69.7 64.1 27.7 28.5 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 30.5 30.9 28.9 1.7 71.7 66.6 28.1 28.7 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 29.3 29.4 28.6 1.6 70.4 65.7 27.2 27.9 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 29.8 30.2 27.3 1.1 63.4 60.6 28.4 29.4 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 29.2 30.1 28.3 1.3 68.3 61.6 27.6 28.7 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 31.1 31.5 30.2 2.1 78.8 71.9 29.8 30.4 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 31.3 31.4 28.5 1.6 69.7 65.6 29.0 29.9 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 30.0 30.8 30.3 1.6 71.0 65.9 26.6 28.3 30.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 28.5 29.0 26.9 1.2 67.0 60.9 27.2 28.1 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 30.2 30.9 30.8 1.8 73.2 67.5 27.3 28.5 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 24.0 24.7 24.2 0.8 63.4 57.5 22.8 23.5 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 30.1 30.7 30.1 1.5 70.4 64.4 28.2 28.9 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 30.5 30.6 29.8 1.4 67.9 63.6 27.3 28.8 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 30.1 30.9 30.8 1.9 75.5 67.7 28.0 28.4 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 28.5 29.9 28.6 1.4 70.1 63.1 27.5 27.9 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 30.6 31.1 29.0 1.6 71.0 65.6 28.2 29.1 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 30.3 30.5 28.3 1.7 71.4 67.0 28.5 29.0 30.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 30.0 30.5 29.8 1.7 71.7 66.7 27.7 28.6 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 30.8 31.2 29.5 1.9 75.4 69.6 29.8 30.1 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.6 23.9 25.5 0.8 63.7 57.5 22.4 23.1 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 30.3 30.8 30.7 1.8 73.1 67.4 27.4 28.7 30.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------