***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 29.7 31.3 30.9 3.0 84.1 77.2 26.6 27.4 28.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 29.6 30.6 30.6 2.7 80.6 75.8 27.0 27.8 28.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 30.1 31.4 31.0 2.9 82.0 75.9 26.5 27.5 28.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 22.7 23.8 28.9 3.0 83.9 76.8 19.9 20.6 21.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 30.3 31.1 29.2 2.6 77.8 73.6 27.1 27.6 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 28.5 29.2 26.0 1.8 74.0 68.6 25.6 26.7 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 29.2 30.6 30.5 2.6 81.7 75.9 26.9 27.7 28.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 17.8 18.4 26.8 2.3 75.6 71.5 14.4 16.1 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 29.7 31.0 29.9 2.9 81.6 75.4 26.5 27.6 28.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 29.0 29.8 27.9 2.5 77.0 72.5 26.3 27.1 28.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 29.5 30.2 29.3 2.7 77.7 73.7 26.7 27.4 28.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 28.7 29.3 28.3 2.5 77.5 73.2 25.9 26.7 27.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 29.6 30.3 27.9 2.0 74.4 69.3 26.9 27.8 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 29.2 30.2 28.6 2.2 77.7 71.2 26.8 27.1 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 30.5 31.5 30.7 2.9 84.8 76.3 28.1 28.4 29.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 30.5 31.1 28.6 2.5 77.4 72.4 27.6 28.5 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 28.9 29.7 30.2 2.6 80.0 74.8 26.0 27.6 28.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 28.2 27.9 26.5 2.0 73.2 68.9 25.2 26.3 27.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 29.1 30.5 30.8 2.9 81.6 76.6 26.3 27.1 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 23.6 23.5 24.0 1.6 70.7 66.3 20.6 22.1 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 30.3 31.7 30.5 2.7 79.3 74.0 26.4 27.5 28.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 29.2 29.8 29.7 2.3 77.8 72.5 26.8 27.8 28.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 29.7 30.6 31.1 3.3 84.0 78.2 26.6 27.1 28.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 29.0 29.7 28.8 2.4 77.3 71.9 26.1 26.9 28.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 29.9 30.9 29.4 2.8 81.4 75.0 27.1 27.7 29.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 29.4 30.2 27.9 2.5 79.8 73.8 26.5 27.5 28.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 29.7 31.0 30.0 2.8 83.2 76.2 26.3 27.4 28.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 30.4 32.0 29.4 2.8 82.6 74.9 27.9 28.5 30.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 23.4 23.3 25.3 1.6 71.6 66.5 20.3 22.0 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 29.3 30.9 30.8 2.8 82.2 76.2 26.5 27.5 28.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------