***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 29.7 29.4 29.0 0.4 66.9 62.8 27.8 28.4 29.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 29.6 29.4 29.4 0.6 70.5 65.0 27.0 28.7 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 29.5 29.0 29.1 0.2 62.9 61.0 27.0 28.5 29.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 21.8 21.5 25.8 -0.1 56.2 53.1 20.5 21.3 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 29.3 28.8 26.4 -0.7 45.9 46.4 28.2 28.9 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 25.5 25.3 22.8 -1.5 26.8 31.2 25.8 27.4 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 29.6 29.1 29.3 0.6 69.5 64.3 27.0 28.3 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 16.9 15.2 23.5 -1.3 33.4 36.5 15.2 16.3 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 28.5 28.8 27.8 -0.1 57.5 54.8 27.6 28.1 29.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 28.4 27.9 25.0 -0.9 43.1 43.7 27.4 28.1 28.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 28.7 27.9 26.5 -0.9 40.1 43.7 27.8 28.4 29.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 27.8 26.7 24.9 -1.1 37.5 40.3 26.6 27.4 28.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 27.1 27.3 25.2 -1.4 30.8 35.2 27.4 29.0 29.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 28.3 28.2 27.1 -0.3 54.6 52.5 27.1 28.1 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 30.0 30.1 28.4 0.0 59.0 54.1 28.2 29.4 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 27.8 29.1 25.7 -1.0 38.2 41.4 28.4 29.4 30.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 29.3 28.8 29.1 0.7 69.6 65.0 26.6 28.0 28.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 27.5 26.6 23.8 -1.3 36.1 38.3 26.4 27.0 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 28.8 29.0 29.5 0.7 71.7 65.9 27.0 27.9 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 21.2 21.0 21.0 -1.9 24.4 28.1 21.5 22.1 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 28.7 28.5 28.4 -0.3 55.2 53.5 27.7 28.2 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 29.4 29.1 28.4 0.2 63.4 58.4 27.4 28.5 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 29.3 29.5 29.7 1.1 75.0 68.8 27.3 28.1 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 28.0 27.6 26.9 -0.5 50.3 50.0 27.0 27.6 28.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 28.8 29.0 27.3 -0.2 56.8 53.9 27.7 28.4 29.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 26.7 26.6 24.0 -1.4 31.3 34.8 26.7 28.3 29.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 28.5 28.9 28.1 0.1 62.5 58.4 27.1 28.2 29.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 27.7 29.2 26.6 -0.4 51.6 49.4 28.6 29.2 30.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 21.2 21.4 22.7 -1.6 30.4 33.1 21.4 22.0 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 29.2 29.1 29.4 0.5 68.9 64.3 27.1 28.3 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------