***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 16.3 16.5 18.8 0.9 76.5 73.1 15.2 15.7 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 16.4 16.6 18.5 0.7 74.3 70.5 15.1 15.6 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 18.4 18.6 19.0 0.8 77.5 72.4 17.2 17.6 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 13.6 14.0 16.5 0.8 79.3 72.6 12.4 13.0 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 14.7 14.9 16.5 0.7 73.4 69.5 13.6 14.1 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 13.4 13.5 14.0 0.3 67.5 62.4 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 16.6 16.8 18.8 0.9 78.8 73.3 15.5 16.1 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 8.9 8.8 13.8 0.4 67.9 64.5 8.0 8.5 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 15.9 16.1 16.6 0.7 74.0 71.4 14.9 15.3 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 15.6 15.7 14.8 0.5 67.7 64.9 14.9 15.1 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 15.5 15.6 16.0 0.7 76.0 72.0 14.6 15.1 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 13.5 13.7 14.9 0.6 73.5 69.6 12.7 13.0 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.5 14.1 0.1 56.2 54.8 13.8 14.3 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 16.6 16.6 16.1 0.4 66.5 62.2 15.6 16.4 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 17.4 17.7 18.2 1.0 83.0 76.3 16.0 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 16.0 15.9 15.3 0.5 70.1 66.1 15.1 15.7 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 16.8 16.9 18.3 0.7 71.8 68.5 16.1 16.3 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.8 13.7 0.2 59.0 56.7 13.2 13.6 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 16.2 16.4 18.7 0.9 77.5 72.6 15.3 15.7 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.7 11.5 0.0 51.6 51.1 9.0 9.6 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 15.9 16.3 17.9 0.7 74.0 69.8 14.6 15.0 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 15.9 16.0 18.2 0.6 71.3 67.2 15.1 15.3 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 15.8 16.1 18.7 1.1 84.4 76.8 14.6 15.0 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 16.4 16.4 16.1 0.4 68.1 63.6 15.0 16.1 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 15.8 15.9 17.4 0.7 73.0 68.9 14.8 15.2 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 14.6 14.4 13.8 0.3 61.4 59.8 13.7 14.1 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 16.1 16.3 18.1 0.8 74.5 70.5 14.6 15.4 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 14.9 15.2 16.9 0.8 79.2 72.6 13.8 14.5 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.9 13.0 0.1 55.4 53.6 12.2 12.8 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 16.6 16.8 18.9 0.9 77.7 72.7 15.5 16.1 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------