***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 16.7 17.3 20.0 1.7 82.5 72.8 15.1 16.1 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 16.6 17.2 19.8 1.6 80.2 73.4 15.6 16.0 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 18.7 19.4 20.2 1.7 82.1 74.1 17.1 17.5 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 15.0 15.7 17.7 1.7 82.6 75.0 12.3 13.3 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 15.3 15.6 17.3 1.4 81.1 73.0 13.7 14.6 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 14.5 14.8 15.1 0.9 72.8 66.6 12.7 13.6 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 17.1 17.5 20.1 1.8 81.3 75.1 15.5 16.2 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 10.0 10.3 14.8 1.0 72.5 68.5 8.4 9.1 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 16.4 16.7 17.4 1.3 79.1 71.6 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 16.4 16.4 15.7 1.1 73.4 68.7 14.6 15.5 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 16.1 16.5 16.8 1.4 79.4 72.9 14.5 15.5 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 14.3 14.5 15.6 1.1 73.8 69.8 12.6 13.8 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.9 15.3 14.5 0.6 62.1 60.8 13.9 14.7 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 17.2 17.5 17.1 1.2 76.2 70.5 15.8 16.4 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 18.4 18.9 19.0 1.6 82.5 74.4 15.7 17.2 18.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 16.5 16.6 15.9 1.1 74.1 68.8 15.3 16.0 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 17.7 18.0 19.6 1.6 80.1 72.9 16.1 16.9 17.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 14.9 15.0 14.6 0.8 69.2 65.9 13.1 14.3 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 16.8 17.1 19.9 1.7 81.7 74.0 15.4 15.9 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 10.9 10.8 12.1 0.5 63.0 61.0 9.4 10.3 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 16.2 16.7 18.8 1.4 78.9 71.3 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 16.4 16.7 19.3 1.5 80.3 72.0 15.0 15.7 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 16.3 16.7 19.7 1.8 82.8 75.6 14.7 15.7 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 16.8 17.0 16.9 1.2 76.0 70.4 15.6 16.3 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 16.3 16.8 18.3 1.4 79.4 70.6 14.6 15.6 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 15.3 15.3 14.6 0.8 67.7 64.8 13.9 14.6 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 16.7 17.2 19.1 1.6 81.5 72.0 14.5 15.7 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 15.8 16.1 17.9 1.6 81.4 73.8 13.8 15.1 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 14.0 14.3 13.9 0.7 67.9 64.6 12.1 12.9 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 16.8 17.5 20.1 1.7 80.9 74.0 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------