***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 16.8 17.2 18.9 0.9 73.6 64.5 14.9 15.6 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 17.0 16.9 18.6 0.8 68.3 63.7 14.5 16.1 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 18.9 19.2 19.1 1.0 73.1 65.9 16.6 17.4 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 14.0 14.5 16.8 1.1 74.2 67.5 12.1 12.8 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 15.3 15.7 16.5 0.9 71.5 65.1 12.7 13.9 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.2 14.3 0.5 62.2 59.2 11.5 12.9 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 17.1 17.4 18.8 0.9 70.7 64.6 15.0 15.9 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 9.2 8.9 14.1 0.7 66.5 62.7 7.8 8.2 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 16.7 16.3 16.6 0.9 70.5 64.5 14.3 15.0 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 16.0 16.2 14.9 0.7 66.7 62.3 14.1 14.9 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 15.8 16.1 16.0 1.0 72.8 66.2 13.7 14.6 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 13.9 13.8 14.9 0.8 69.8 64.0 11.5 12.9 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.2 13.9 0.2 56.3 54.1 12.4 13.9 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.1 16.1 16.0 0.4 61.6 58.2 14.7 15.7 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 17.2 17.5 18.1 1.0 73.6 67.5 15.5 16.3 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 16.4 16.3 15.2 0.7 67.1 61.9 13.9 15.5 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 17.7 17.7 18.3 0.7 66.1 61.4 15.9 16.8 17.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.9 14.3 13.8 0.4 63.0 57.9 12.5 13.5 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 16.7 16.5 18.7 0.9 69.6 65.2 14.9 15.8 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.2 11.5 0.2 55.1 54.4 8.1 9.0 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 16.3 16.3 17.9 0.8 71.0 64.0 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 16.1 15.9 18.1 0.6 64.9 61.4 14.5 15.1 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 16.0 15.7 18.7 1.0 73.7 67.6 14.4 15.3 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 16.4 16.1 16.0 0.5 65.2 60.3 14.4 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 16.4 16.3 17.4 0.8 69.9 63.3 14.0 15.2 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.5 14.0 0.6 64.9 60.3 12.8 13.9 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 16.8 16.7 18.0 0.8 70.1 63.4 14.3 15.4 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 15.1 15.3 17.0 1.0 71.5 66.1 12.6 14.1 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.4 13.1 0.3 59.4 56.6 11.6 12.9 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 17.4 17.3 18.9 0.9 71.3 65.2 15.0 16.1 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------