***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 16.2 16.0 18.7 1.1 73.2 65.7 14.4 15.1 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.1 16.0 18.2 0.8 66.9 61.6 13.6 14.6 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 17.9 18.2 18.8 1.0 73.0 64.8 16.0 16.8 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 12.4 13.6 16.4 1.0 71.5 64.8 11.3 11.9 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 14.3 15.3 16.4 0.8 68.6 62.4 13.1 13.9 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 13.6 13.6 13.9 0.7 67.2 62.0 12.2 12.8 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 16.5 16.2 18.5 1.0 70.6 64.6 14.6 15.5 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.4 8.6 13.8 0.7 64.5 62.1 7.3 8.2 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 15.9 16.0 16.6 0.9 70.0 64.1 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.3 15.5 14.7 0.7 65.2 61.4 14.4 15.1 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 15.6 15.8 16.0 0.9 70.2 65.3 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 13.1 13.7 14.9 0.9 69.9 65.6 12.5 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.3 14.3 0.4 60.5 57.8 13.5 13.9 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.2 15.9 0.4 62.6 57.5 15.1 16.0 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 17.3 17.5 18.2 1.2 76.1 68.7 16.0 16.6 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 16.0 16.3 15.3 0.7 67.7 62.8 14.5 15.1 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.8 17.9 0.7 67.3 60.4 14.9 15.9 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.0 14.3 13.7 0.4 59.6 56.4 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 15.3 16.1 18.3 0.9 69.4 63.3 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.8 11.6 0.3 55.4 55.9 8.8 9.7 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 15.2 15.9 17.8 0.8 69.8 62.8 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.7 17.8 0.6 64.8 59.5 14.0 14.8 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 15.9 16.5 18.5 1.2 77.1 67.5 13.6 14.8 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.9 16.0 0.5 64.8 58.8 14.8 15.5 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 15.9 16.1 17.4 0.9 70.3 63.3 13.9 15.2 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 14.6 14.6 14.0 0.7 67.4 61.0 13.2 14.0 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 15.9 15.8 17.9 0.9 70.6 63.6 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 15.0 15.3 16.8 1.0 73.1 65.6 13.9 14.2 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.3 12.9 0.3 56.3 55.2 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 16.7 16.5 18.6 1.0 70.9 64.4 14.5 15.5 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------