***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.8 17.8 -0.2 55.1 54.2 15.0 15.6 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 15.9 15.8 17.6 -0.2 52.6 51.6 14.9 15.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 17.7 17.5 17.9 -0.2 51.4 52.1 16.9 17.5 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 11.5 12.8 15.2 -0.4 49.1 45.3 11.7 12.8 13.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.1 15.6 -0.5 43.4 43.3 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 12.3 12.6 12.6 -0.7 35.3 35.7 12.6 13.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 16.0 16.2 17.9 0.0 57.0 56.0 15.1 15.9 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.3 7.5 12.6 -0.7 32.8 34.4 7.5 8.5 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 15.6 15.6 16.0 -0.2 52.1 50.6 14.9 15.4 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.1 13.8 -0.6 38.8 39.3 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.1 15.2 -0.4 45.2 44.4 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.4 12.8 14.0 -0.4 41.0 42.4 12.1 13.1 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 13.5 13.9 13.8 -0.7 32.8 34.5 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.4 15.9 15.5 -0.5 44.3 42.5 15.6 16.3 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 16.6 17.1 17.4 0.2 62.1 58.2 15.8 16.2 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 16.0 15.3 14.6 -0.5 42.6 42.1 14.9 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 16.3 16.2 17.3 -0.2 52.8 51.0 15.3 16.1 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 12.5 12.9 12.9 -0.9 32.0 32.6 12.9 13.5 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 15.7 15.7 17.7 -0.1 56.3 54.9 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 8.6 8.3 10.9 -1.0 26.6 28.5 8.5 9.9 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 15.4 15.1 17.0 -0.3 50.7 49.1 14.5 15.1 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.2 17.4 -0.3 49.4 49.1 14.5 15.2 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 15.5 15.5 17.9 0.2 64.9 61.3 14.4 14.8 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.1 15.4 15.4 -0.5 43.8 42.6 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.4 16.6 -0.5 47.4 47.2 14.8 15.5 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 12.9 13.2 12.7 -0.9 29.5 31.3 13.3 14.1 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.4 17.1 -0.3 51.4 50.3 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.8 14.6 15.8 -0.2 52.1 49.5 13.9 14.6 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 11.0 11.0 12.0 -1.0 25.9 28.2 11.5 12.5 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 16.1 16.1 17.9 -0.1 55.2 54.5 15.4 15.9 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------