***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 28.1 44.9 39.2 86.8 49.4 43.3 22.6 46.2 70.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 30.7 38.1 36.3 90.8 53.9 44.0 30.7 36.6 47.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 29.0 53.1 42.4 95.5 55.3 46.4 32.5 44.9 61.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 33.8 58.5 41.5 97.2 54.5 48.1 31.1 52.7 70.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 25.3 44.9 37.4 87.1 49.6 43.2 35.6 45.2 56.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 58.6 48.5 43.9 87.7 47.9 46.2 37.6 50.8 67.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 27.0 42.6 37.4 94.8 55.4 44.8 33.1 37.3 54.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 89.6 95.1 52.8 105.0 57.1 52.3 53.5 78.3 97.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 24.6 52.2 45.8 98.6 57.0 48.4 26.9 44.8 66.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 38.1 61.6 53.4 98.5 53.5 49.2 42.2 56.4 93.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 25.8 35.6 37.9 91.9 48.8 45.7 27.5 38.0 53.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 61.0 53.7 40.8 103.2 55.6 51.3 34.7 50.3 73.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 26.3 43.0 38.3 94.7 50.4 47.7 29.0 42.9 47.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 46.2 64.6 53.6 89.9 53.0 44.6 47.3 62.1 81.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 44.4 39.4 32.4 93.8 56.1 48.4 17.8 37.2 51.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 38.8 36.3 39.0 100.1 53.8 50.6 25.2 35.8 42.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 32.6 44.0 36.5 91.8 53.5 42.8 35.8 42.3 51.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 69.2 69.0 63.8 101.8 54.7 50.5 41.2 60.3 73.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 29.5 44.2 37.2 90.0 53.9 44.5 31.2 41.6 58.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 39.9 62.7 64.9 106.5 58.1 53.5 45.4 56.5 66.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 32.9 58.3 45.0 101.3 58.7 49.0 24.0 52.1 62.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 37.7 50.5 37.3 89.1 51.8 42.7 42.6 50.5 70.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 33.8 51.7 40.9 92.1 56.6 46.4 37.6 48.0 62.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 41.2 71.3 54.6 97.8 55.0 47.7 35.9 62.9 73.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 28.6 45.1 39.3 81.2 46.4 40.4 29.6 46.5 51.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 20.4 30.9 33.2 98.8 57.2 51.1 18.8 28.1 51.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 30.4 47.5 41.1 83.9 47.9 42.1 38.5 47.9 61.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 52.7 48.2 37.7 96.4 54.8 48.2 29.1 44.0 64.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 82.3 88.3 66.9 103.0 56.3 51.2 59.0 74.7 92.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 30.5 43.9 37.9 92.0 53.6 45.3 27.9 38.1 59.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------