***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 1.3 10.8 9.8 105.5 65.5 51.4 0.4 2.7 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.0 10.2 9.9 114.7 70.7 53.3 1.0 4.3 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.0 19.6 10.3 114.0 69.3 53.5 0.5 4.5 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.3 22.6 8.3 91.2 67.8 51.7 1.1 5.4 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 1.7 11.4 7.6 90.4 67.5 48.2 0.3 3.5 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.3 12.9 9.0 85.4 63.8 49.5 0.7 7.0 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.1 13.7 9.2 108.2 68.1 51.2 1.7 7.0 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 16.5 21.1 10.4 103.2 65.1 54.2 3.0 10.5 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.5 13.9 9.3 100.3 69.2 52.0 0.2 1.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 12.8 17.7 11.0 100.1 65.8 52.2 0.6 6.7 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.4 21.3 7.0 92.4 67.6 50.6 0.6 2.8 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.3 13.7 7.2 93.6 64.8 52.9 0.0 2.0 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 6.0 10.0 6.9 84.8 64.4 52.6 0.4 2.8 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 4.9 15.6 12.1 100.1 65.7 51.1 1.9 9.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.9 9.0 6.1 83.2 67.9 49.1 0.8 6.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.1 8.8 6.7 87.0 65.7 52.0 0.3 2.5 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.8 20.5 9.6 114.6 71.6 52.5 2.8 7.2 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 11.6 17.8 14.0 107.7 64.8 54.1 2.3 6.1 20.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.4 18.8 10.1 116.0 70.6 53.6 1.9 7.4 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.2 12.1 14.5 108.5 63.4 55.5 3.4 8.3 13.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.0 18.9 9.3 102.8 70.2 51.7 0.5 8.6 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.5 22.1 9.5 107.2 70.2 51.8 3.9 7.0 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.2 13.2 10.3 116.8 70.0 53.3 1.4 4.9 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.9 17.5 11.9 105.3 65.9 52.7 1.2 10.4 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.6 17.1 9.1 92.0 65.6 49.2 0.1 7.6 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.0 13.7 5.8 92.4 66.6 54.9 1.6 6.1 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.1 9.6 10.0 99.8 65.1 50.9 1.8 4.5 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.6 15.3 7.1 84.6 67.2 49.4 2.2 5.6 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.9 27.2 15.0 111.5 65.0 54.7 8.8 14.6 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.4 12.8 10.1 113.8 68.3 53.6 3.2 5.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------