***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 1.2 14.9 8.9 86.6 63.3 48.8 0.9 2.6 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.7 11.8 8.7 91.3 64.6 46.4 2.2 6.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.1 11.0 9.1 87.3 61.7 48.5 1.1 7.2 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 1.8 13.9 9.2 109.1 69.6 55.0 0.5 4.2 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 1.1 9.4 8.0 95.3 67.0 48.0 0.9 2.6 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.0 9.0 10.6 105.5 67.5 54.2 1.4 3.9 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.5 8.0 9.0 99.2 66.5 47.1 0.8 3.6 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 3.3 13.0 11.2 114.5 67.9 54.3 3.4 6.6 11.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 0.5 10.5 9.6 100.7 67.3 53.0 0.1 1.0 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 1.8 6.4 11.4 103.9 65.1 51.8 0.9 3.9 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 0.7 5.8 7.7 102.1 67.3 52.0 0.2 1.5 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 1.1 18.4 8.7 114.2 71.4 54.8 0.0 2.5 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 0.3 3.6 9.6 122.6 72.4 57.0 0.0 0.6 2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 1.7 13.8 12.2 89.9 63.0 47.3 1.1 4.0 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.8 7.7 6.6 96.2 68.4 52.9 0.5 1.9 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 1.1 5.9 8.3 110.9 70.1 56.2 0.8 2.5 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 1.5 9.1 8.6 94.2 67.1 45.9 2.0 3.8 8.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.1 12.5 13.9 101.7 64.1 51.8 0.8 4.9 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 2.4 10.2 8.6 85.7 62.5 46.8 1.7 5.8 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.8 8.6 13.8 107.9 63.9 52.6 2.1 4.8 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 1.1 7.1 9.5 99.5 67.6 52.8 0.1 2.3 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 1.6 6.8 9.5 92.8 65.7 47.6 1.5 4.0 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.1 11.0 8.8 84.0 63.2 48.3 0.6 7.0 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.4 12.2 12.4 98.7 64.5 51.4 0.8 4.9 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.1 9.0 9.2 89.5 62.5 45.9 1.0 6.4 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 0.2 4.1 8.3 138.9 75.1 55.4 0.0 0.3 3.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.0 9.0 9.5 87.5 62.7 47.8 1.3 6.2 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 1.3 9.2 7.8 100.5 68.3 53.9 0.4 2.8 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.5 18.7 14.5 101.3 63.5 52.4 4.5 11.1 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 1.7 7.9 8.9 90.0 64.3 46.9 1.2 4.3 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------