***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.2 6.8 12.3 90.2 59.4 46.3 3.2 5.0 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.6 9.1 11.3 93.7 58.9 45.4 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.5 13.8 99.5 62.3 49.4 2.1 5.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 15.4 20.9 13.8 110.3 66.4 55.6 3.1 11.0 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 4.6 8.9 10.2 76.7 55.3 41.1 4.4 8.8 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 11.7 17.2 13.4 88.7 58.6 51.5 3.9 8.7 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.4 7.9 12.0 99.7 60.9 46.2 2.7 5.1 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 30.7 34.8 15.3 110.2 64.2 53.3 16.3 26.9 37.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.8 10.1 13.1 95.2 62.7 51.1 4.3 7.0 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 21.2 19.8 14.6 97.4 61.6 50.5 7.8 15.0 20.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.9 13.4 11.0 81.0 54.9 42.8 2.8 10.8 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 19.7 24.8 13.0 107.4 63.8 51.9 7.3 16.5 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.0 16.8 11.4 93.0 63.3 51.1 5.4 10.2 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 14.5 11.1 15.8 84.8 56.7 46.1 5.9 9.0 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 5.3 6.0 11.4 106.2 69.1 57.6 1.3 4.6 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.4 18.8 13.3 113.7 68.5 57.9 5.2 13.0 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.0 7.4 11.0 86.4 59.6 44.8 3.1 5.8 13.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 20.5 25.6 18.6 106.0 62.5 54.2 11.4 18.1 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 5.1 10.1 11.6 92.6 58.5 45.8 5.1 9.3 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 18.8 23.2 19.4 119.2 69.0 56.4 11.0 15.4 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 10.1 11.7 14.2 106.9 67.0 54.9 4.9 9.5 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.5 10.3 11.2 84.8 59.0 46.0 2.8 9.0 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 5.0 12.3 12.8 92.9 57.5 47.0 4.1 10.2 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.2 15.1 16.6 97.4 60.1 50.8 6.8 11.9 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.1 6.9 11.2 68.7 51.4 39.3 2.4 6.7 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.8 10.8 12.0 105.1 63.5 51.8 4.1 8.4 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.9 7.2 12.8 80.7 54.8 43.6 3.1 6.6 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 7.7 10.0 12.0 109.4 68.3 57.0 1.5 6.4 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 21.7 27.5 20.9 111.6 65.6 55.0 13.8 18.3 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.8 8.0 12.2 101.0 59.6 48.2 3.1 6.6 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------