***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 3.3 11.5 8.1 68.8 53.1 35.1 3.6 11.1 18.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 4.9 12.5 6.3 65.8 54.2 35.6 4.8 11.1 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 4.7 15.8 9.2 82.6 57.6 38.9 3.7 11.8 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 2.0 5.2 10.2 81.4 52.9 38.5 3.8 5.0 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 2.3 10.6 11.4 90.8 55.8 40.5 2.2 7.1 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 2.1 5.4 10.8 75.0 48.2 39.6 1.7 5.9 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 5.5 18.0 7.2 73.4 55.6 35.0 6.6 16.2 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 8.1 19.3 15.9 95.0 56.9 44.6 9.2 14.9 25.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 2.2 10.5 13.7 99.1 57.9 41.7 2.0 6.4 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 5.5 16.4 16.4 95.1 57.7 43.3 5.6 12.8 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.2 9.4 12.2 99.4 60.5 42.6 4.3 6.9 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 3.7 12.5 11.9 98.5 59.2 44.0 4.9 9.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 1.4 6.7 10.4 84.9 53.3 38.5 3.3 5.3 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 5.8 17.0 13.5 87.9 58.7 41.1 5.5 13.9 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 0.9 4.7 8.3 85.6 62.2 41.0 0.7 2.2 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 3.1 7.9 10.7 90.3 56.1 39.4 3.6 6.4 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 2.6 8.9 7.3 76.8 54.5 32.7 4.0 7.7 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 6.0 11.6 17.4 94.4 58.0 43.0 8.1 10.6 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 4.5 10.4 7.0 68.5 55.6 37.2 5.0 8.9 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 5.6 12.5 17.1 92.2 55.2 44.9 7.8 11.9 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 4.0 10.4 12.0 95.5 58.3 40.2 2.9 8.9 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 4.4 12.6 7.1 74.4 54.7 35.0 3.6 11.5 17.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 5.3 14.1 9.0 79.2 58.9 38.9 5.8 9.6 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 4.4 13.8 13.6 91.9 59.9 42.0 6.8 10.3 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 3.6 12.0 9.8 82.2 56.4 36.0 3.2 9.0 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.4 6.0 7.1 71.7 53.0 40.8 3.2 5.4 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 4.7 12.7 8.8 72.6 53.0 35.6 4.4 11.9 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 1.3 5.5 10.8 89.7 58.4 40.3 1.5 3.5 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 7.7 19.0 16.5 89.3 54.7 42.8 11.3 18.0 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 6.1 9.6 6.7 64.7 53.0 36.2 6.5 9.3 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------