***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 28.7 28.4 29.1 -0.2 50.7 47.7 28.0 28.3 29.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 28.9 28.7 29.7 0.2 54.7 54.0 27.8 28.6 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 28.8 28.6 29.5 -0.1 52.2 50.0 27.7 28.5 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 21.9 21.5 26.3 -0.9 35.2 36.4 21.3 21.7 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 29.5 28.6 26.9 -0.9 36.2 36.3 28.4 29.3 29.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 28.0 27.3 24.2 -0.8 34.7 35.0 27.2 27.9 28.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 28.8 28.6 29.6 0.1 53.4 52.7 27.8 28.5 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 16.1 16.5 24.7 -1.0 31.0 33.2 16.6 17.0 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 29.1 28.1 27.5 -0.6 40.6 40.9 27.8 28.9 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 28.8 27.9 25.7 -0.8 36.6 37.2 27.6 28.6 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 28.9 28.0 26.8 -0.9 35.2 35.7 27.8 28.6 29.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 28.0 27.0 26.1 -0.9 33.3 35.1 27.0 27.7 28.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 28.3 28.1 25.8 -0.9 33.0 34.1 28.1 29.3 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 28.5 28.2 27.3 -0.2 48.8 46.8 27.6 28.2 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 29.9 29.7 28.2 -0.6 40.7 40.6 29.5 29.8 30.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 30.2 28.9 26.4 -0.8 36.2 36.1 28.8 30.0 30.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 28.0 28.2 29.6 0.3 56.7 56.5 27.2 27.7 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 27.6 27.2 25.1 -0.6 40.0 40.0 26.9 27.4 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 28.3 28.4 29.7 0.2 56.5 55.0 27.4 28.1 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 22.5 22.5 22.4 -1.0 30.1 31.3 22.7 23.2 23.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 29.0 28.5 28.5 -0.5 43.2 42.6 28.1 28.8 29.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 28.6 28.8 29.5 0.4 59.8 58.8 27.5 28.3 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 28.5 28.5 29.6 0.3 57.4 56.0 27.5 28.2 29.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 28.3 27.8 27.3 -0.4 46.5 45.2 27.2 28.0 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 29.3 28.7 27.3 -0.7 40.8 40.7 28.2 29.1 29.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 28.6 28.2 25.7 -0.7 38.3 38.0 28.1 28.4 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 28.5 28.2 28.2 -0.4 47.0 45.4 27.7 28.3 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 30.0 29.5 26.9 -0.9 36.1 36.6 29.5 29.8 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 22.0 22.2 24.0 -0.8 36.1 37.1 22.2 22.7 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 28.7 28.6 29.6 0.0 53.3 52.1 27.9 28.4 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------