***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 29.6 30.3 31.4 1.2 67.1 63.4 27.1 28.0 30.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 30.5 31.2 31.9 1.6 70.3 66.6 27.1 28.4 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 30.5 30.7 31.9 1.5 70.1 65.8 26.5 28.5 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 24.2 23.4 29.0 0.5 58.5 56.9 20.2 22.7 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 30.3 30.6 29.1 0.5 57.0 56.2 27.4 29.7 31.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 28.7 28.5 26.3 0.3 54.5 54.7 26.4 28.1 29.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 30.0 30.6 31.7 1.4 66.7 64.9 27.0 28.1 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 17.7 17.3 27.0 0.2 52.8 53.4 16.0 17.0 19.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 30.6 30.7 29.5 0.8 60.3 59.6 27.1 29.3 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 29.6 29.8 27.9 0.5 56.9 56.8 27.0 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 29.6 30.4 28.8 0.5 56.0 55.7 26.8 29.1 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 28.7 29.2 28.5 0.4 54.7 54.6 26.2 28.2 30.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 30.2 29.8 27.6 0.1 51.5 52.3 27.6 29.8 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 30.3 30.2 29.1 1.0 66.4 62.5 26.7 28.0 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 31.7 31.1 30.3 0.9 63.0 61.5 28.0 30.5 31.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 31.2 31.2 28.5 0.4 57.1 55.4 27.9 30.7 32.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 29.7 30.1 31.7 1.6 70.3 66.7 26.7 27.8 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 28.7 29.3 27.4 0.7 59.9 58.2 26.1 28.0 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 30.3 30.6 32.1 1.7 72.4 68.1 26.7 28.3 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 24.0 23.3 24.3 0.0 48.7 50.5 22.1 23.3 26.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 30.5 30.5 30.5 0.8 61.6 60.4 27.0 29.3 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 30.3 31.1 31.7 1.8 74.5 69.2 27.3 28.2 30.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 30.3 30.8 31.9 1.8 73.6 68.7 26.6 27.9 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 30.1 29.8 29.3 1.0 66.0 62.4 26.4 28.5 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 30.6 30.6 29.3 0.6 60.2 58.1 26.9 29.1 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 29.6 30.3 28.3 0.5 58.1 57.0 27.1 29.0 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 29.8 30.1 30.3 1.0 64.7 61.2 26.4 27.9 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 31.0 30.9 29.4 0.6 59.5 57.8 28.5 30.5 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.9 23.9 26.1 0.4 54.9 55.5 21.4 23.2 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 30.4 30.7 31.8 1.5 68.7 65.7 26.7 28.2 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------