***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.6 30.2 0.5 60.8 56.1 28.0 29.0 29.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 29.5 30.2 30.7 0.9 62.6 59.0 28.0 29.0 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 29.4 29.8 30.7 0.7 61.7 57.7 28.3 29.1 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 22.5 22.1 27.8 -0.2 49.8 49.0 21.1 22.1 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 30.3 30.1 28.0 -0.2 49.7 48.6 28.2 30.1 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 28.3 27.9 25.3 -0.2 48.2 47.5 27.0 28.0 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 29.2 30.2 30.6 0.8 61.5 58.1 28.0 28.8 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 17.6 17.2 25.9 -0.4 46.9 45.9 16.3 17.3 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 29.8 29.8 28.4 0.1 54.2 51.1 27.5 29.6 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 29.1 28.9 26.8 -0.1 51.1 49.0 27.4 28.8 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 29.8 29.5 27.6 -0.2 49.3 48.5 27.9 29.5 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 28.5 27.9 27.3 -0.3 46.8 46.5 26.9 28.2 28.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 29.8 28.8 26.4 -0.4 45.3 45.1 27.8 29.4 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 29.1 29.2 28.0 0.3 56.6 54.5 27.7 28.7 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 30.5 30.4 29.0 0.1 53.9 52.2 29.5 30.2 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 30.8 30.5 27.3 -0.2 48.9 47.8 28.6 30.5 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 28.8 29.8 30.6 0.9 64.3 59.6 27.4 28.3 29.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 28.1 27.8 26.4 0.0 52.1 50.7 27.0 27.8 29.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 28.8 29.5 30.8 1.0 63.6 59.9 27.5 28.4 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 23.5 23.0 23.3 -0.5 45.3 44.2 22.3 23.0 24.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 29.7 29.6 29.4 0.1 54.9 52.3 28.0 29.5 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 29.3 30.0 30.6 1.1 65.0 61.3 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 29.0 30.1 30.6 1.0 63.9 60.2 27.6 28.6 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 29.0 28.7 28.2 0.3 56.1 54.1 27.3 28.6 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 29.7 29.7 28.2 0.0 54.2 51.3 28.3 29.4 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 29.2 29.2 27.2 0.0 51.7 50.4 27.9 28.9 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 29.2 29.2 29.2 0.3 58.8 54.5 28.0 28.9 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 30.5 30.3 28.1 -0.1 50.1 49.0 29.5 30.3 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 23.4 23.0 25.1 -0.1 50.1 48.8 22.3 23.0 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 29.2 29.7 30.6 0.8 61.2 58.1 27.9 28.8 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------