***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 27.4 27.8 28.7 0.1 53.0 52.5 26.1 27.1 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 27.9 28.0 29.2 0.5 57.5 57.2 26.5 27.5 28.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 27.8 27.5 28.9 0.2 53.3 53.2 26.3 27.3 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 21.3 19.7 25.5 -0.8 40.9 42.1 19.4 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 28.0 27.2 26.4 -0.6 43.9 44.1 26.9 27.5 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 27.1 26.2 23.6 -0.8 41.7 41.8 25.2 26.6 28.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 28.0 27.8 29.1 0.5 58.0 56.9 26.7 27.5 28.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 16.5 15.1 23.9 -0.9 42.3 40.9 14.7 16.2 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 27.5 26.9 27.1 -0.4 47.0 46.5 26.7 27.1 28.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 27.8 26.9 25.1 -0.7 44.1 43.5 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 27.8 27.0 26.3 -0.7 45.0 43.4 26.5 27.4 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 27.0 26.3 25.3 -0.8 43.1 42.1 25.8 26.5 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 28.2 27.1 25.4 -0.8 42.5 42.8 26.8 27.8 29.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 27.3 27.1 26.8 0.0 52.9 51.4 26.4 26.9 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 29.0 28.1 27.6 -0.6 43.1 43.9 27.7 28.5 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 29.0 28.3 25.8 -0.7 42.9 42.8 27.3 28.6 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 27.7 28.0 29.2 0.8 61.7 60.4 25.7 27.2 28.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 26.5 25.8 24.3 -0.5 44.3 45.1 25.2 26.1 27.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 27.5 27.5 29.2 0.5 57.1 57.0 26.0 27.1 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 22.5 21.4 21.7 -0.9 40.1 40.4 21.0 22.0 23.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 27.6 27.2 28.1 -0.3 48.6 48.3 26.4 27.2 28.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 28.0 28.2 29.1 0.8 62.5 60.5 26.3 27.7 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 27.5 27.4 29.0 0.5 58.6 57.5 26.1 27.0 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 26.9 26.5 26.7 -0.2 49.2 49.4 25.9 26.5 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 28.3 27.8 27.0 -0.3 47.1 47.7 26.9 28.0 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 27.6 26.9 24.9 -0.7 43.6 43.8 26.4 27.2 29.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 27.7 27.5 27.8 0.0 51.5 51.4 25.9 27.4 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 29.1 27.9 26.2 -0.9 40.0 41.1 27.6 28.4 30.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 22.2 21.6 23.3 -0.6 44.2 44.1 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 27.8 27.8 29.1 0.4 55.8 55.6 26.3 27.4 28.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------