***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 90 10 0 100 27.1 26.9 26.2 -2.7 15.6 16.6 27.7 28.7 29.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 26.0 25.7 26.9 -2.4 18.1 20.6 27.4 28.6 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 90 10 0 100 26.2 25.8 26.4 -2.7 14.9 17.9 27.3 28.3 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 97 3 0 100 18.9 18.6 22.9 -3.2 12.3 13.8 20.6 21.6 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 95 5 0 100 26.4 26.1 24.1 -3.1 13.5 14.8 28.3 29.1 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 89 11 0 100 24.9 24.5 21.6 -2.7 15.6 17.3 25.8 27.9 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 89 11 0 100 26.2 26.1 26.8 -2.4 19.0 21.6 27.2 28.3 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 92 8 0 100 14.5 14.2 21.9 -2.9 13.8 16.1 15.5 16.5 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 93 7 0 100 26.3 26.1 25.2 -2.8 15.5 17.3 27.2 28.4 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 92 8 0 100 26.1 25.5 23.0 -2.9 14.5 16.4 27.5 28.5 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 94 6 0 100 26.0 25.6 24.4 -3.0 14.6 15.9 27.5 28.9 29.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 91 9 0 100 25.7 25.4 23.2 -2.8 15.3 17.0 26.5 27.6 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 89 11 0 100 26.2 25.7 23.9 -2.7 15.4 17.8 27.4 29.1 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 89 11 0 100 26.0 26.2 25.3 -2.3 19.4 20.7 27.3 28.2 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 94 6 0 100 26.8 26.2 25.7 -2.9 12.3 14.5 27.9 29.9 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 90 10 0 100 26.5 26.1 23.9 -2.8 15.9 17.3 28.4 29.8 30.8 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 25.6 25.7 26.8 -2.0 23.3 25.1 26.7 27.5 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 88 12 0 100 25.5 25.2 22.3 -2.7 16.0 18.1 26.6 27.5 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 86 14 0 100 26.1 25.8 26.9 -2.4 18.1 20.5 27.1 28.1 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 20.7 20.3 20.2 -2.7 14.6 16.9 21.5 22.6 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 94 6 0 100 26.4 25.9 26.0 -2.9 13.9 16.6 27.6 28.4 29.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 26.1 25.8 26.8 -2.0 23.2 25.4 27.4 28.5 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 83 17 0 100 26.2 26.2 26.8 -2.2 21.0 22.7 27.2 28.1 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 90 10 0 100 25.7 25.5 24.9 -2.6 16.6 18.9 27.0 27.7 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 96 4 0 100 26.4 26.1 24.8 -3.0 13.9 14.6 27.3 28.7 29.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 85 15 0 100 25.8 25.6 22.5 -2.7 17.4 18.7 27.3 28.1 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 93 7 0 100 26.5 26.3 25.6 -2.8 14.5 15.9 26.8 28.2 29.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 95 5 0 100 26.2 25.8 24.0 -3.0 12.7 14.5 28.6 29.8 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 89 11 0 100 20.4 20.2 21.6 -2.7 15.4 17.5 21.6 22.5 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 89 11 0 100 26.1 25.9 26.8 -2.5 17.0 19.3 27.1 28.3 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------