***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 16.0 15.4 18.0 -0.5 40.4 39.3 15.3 15.8 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 15.9 15.6 18.1 -0.2 46.5 45.2 15.2 15.7 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 17.9 17.6 18.3 -0.3 42.9 42.8 17.3 17.7 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.4 15.5 -0.7 32.8 32.5 12.5 13.0 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.6 15.6 -0.6 33.3 34.0 13.6 14.0 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.2 12.6 13.5 -0.5 33.2 35.5 12.6 13.0 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 16.2 15.8 18.2 -0.3 43.2 43.5 15.5 16.1 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.0 7.9 13.2 -0.5 31.8 34.3 7.9 8.5 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.0 15.8 -0.5 33.0 34.6 15.0 15.3 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 14.5 14.9 14.1 -0.5 32.1 34.5 14.9 15.1 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.2 14.7 15.1 -0.5 34.2 34.4 14.7 15.0 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.6 14.1 -0.6 31.7 33.9 12.6 13.0 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 13.7 13.6 13.7 -0.6 27.9 30.6 13.8 14.2 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.5 15.6 15.7 -0.4 34.3 37.2 15.5 16.4 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 16.8 15.8 17.0 -0.6 31.4 32.0 16.0 16.6 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.8 14.9 14.6 -0.6 32.0 33.4 15.0 15.7 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 16.5 16.3 18.1 -0.1 49.5 48.8 16.1 16.4 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 12.9 13.2 13.4 -0.4 34.3 36.6 13.2 13.7 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 15.8 15.6 18.2 -0.2 47.5 46.3 15.4 15.6 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.9 8.9 11.2 -0.5 28.6 33.5 8.9 9.5 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.3 14.7 17.1 -0.5 35.7 35.9 14.7 15.0 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.3 18.1 0.0 49.8 49.9 15.1 15.3 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.2 14.9 18.0 -0.1 47.0 47.3 14.6 15.0 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.2 15.7 -0.4 38.2 39.8 15.0 16.0 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 15.4 14.8 16.6 -0.6 33.8 34.0 14.8 15.1 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 13.6 13.6 13.3 -0.5 30.6 34.2 13.6 14.1 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.7 14.7 17.2 -0.5 37.4 36.8 14.6 15.5 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.6 13.7 15.8 -0.7 29.8 30.8 13.8 14.4 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 12.9 12.1 12.7 -0.5 32.6 35.7 12.2 12.7 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 16.2 15.9 18.3 -0.3 44.1 43.8 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------