***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 16.7 16.8 19.9 0.9 69.8 64.6 15.4 16.1 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 16.7 16.9 20.1 1.2 71.8 66.8 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 18.8 19.1 20.3 1.0 71.3 66.1 17.0 17.7 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.7 14.4 17.3 0.6 64.2 61.0 12.2 13.2 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.9 17.0 0.5 60.3 58.9 14.1 14.7 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 14.1 14.2 15.2 0.6 67.4 61.5 12.7 13.3 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 17.1 17.1 20.2 1.1 71.3 65.5 15.4 16.4 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.5 14.7 0.4 59.6 58.2 8.5 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 16.1 16.3 17.1 0.5 62.2 59.6 15.5 15.9 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.7 16.0 15.6 0.4 59.9 58.2 15.0 15.4 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.7 16.1 16.5 0.5 60.9 58.9 14.4 15.5 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.1 15.5 0.4 60.4 57.9 12.8 13.9 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.3 14.7 0.2 57.7 53.4 14.1 15.1 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 16.7 16.9 17.2 0.7 63.7 61.0 15.7 16.5 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 17.5 18.1 18.6 0.6 64.4 61.5 16.0 17.3 18.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.5 15.8 0.4 59.9 56.9 15.4 16.2 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 17.4 17.6 20.0 1.3 72.3 67.9 15.8 16.9 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.5 14.7 0.5 59.8 58.7 13.5 14.2 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 16.8 16.9 20.1 1.2 73.5 67.9 15.1 16.3 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.5 12.3 0.3 56.2 57.2 9.8 10.3 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 16.0 16.3 18.7 0.6 65.9 60.8 15.1 15.8 16.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 16.3 16.6 19.9 1.3 75.7 69.0 14.9 15.8 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 16.0 16.3 19.9 1.2 73.8 68.4 14.6 15.5 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 16.4 16.5 17.0 0.7 65.9 61.5 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 15.7 16.3 18.2 0.7 64.1 61.1 14.8 15.5 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 14.8 15.0 14.7 0.5 62.0 59.2 13.8 14.7 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 16.5 16.2 19.0 0.8 68.1 63.4 14.8 15.7 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.6 17.5 0.5 63.0 59.7 13.8 15.2 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.8 14.0 0.4 58.2 58.5 11.9 12.9 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 17.0 16.9 20.2 1.1 71.0 66.2 15.4 16.3 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------