***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 16.0 16.4 19.0 0.4 62.4 57.1 14.9 15.5 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.9 19.2 0.7 65.5 60.9 14.5 15.8 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 18.2 18.6 19.4 0.6 65.0 60.1 16.3 17.8 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.0 16.3 0.1 53.2 52.5 12.2 13.0 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.5 14.2 16.2 0.1 52.7 52.9 12.7 14.1 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.1 14.4 0.2 53.4 54.1 11.8 12.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 17.1 16.7 19.3 0.6 64.9 59.9 14.9 16.3 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 7.1 8.5 14.0 0.2 53.5 54.0 7.4 8.1 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.5 16.4 0.2 55.8 54.7 14.2 14.9 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 15.4 15.3 14.9 0.2 53.9 54.6 13.8 14.9 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.3 15.1 15.7 0.2 53.8 53.9 13.5 14.9 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 11.8 13.2 14.7 0.2 53.6 53.5 11.3 13.0 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 12.7 13.8 14.1 0.0 50.5 51.2 12.8 13.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.4 16.5 0.4 58.7 56.6 14.5 15.9 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.8 17.7 0.1 54.7 53.2 15.5 16.3 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 14.0 15.4 15.1 0.2 52.5 53.0 14.1 15.1 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 17.7 17.4 19.1 0.8 65.9 62.0 16.0 17.0 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.0 14.1 0.3 55.6 56.4 12.1 13.8 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.9 16.5 19.2 0.8 65.1 61.5 14.9 15.6 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.3 11.7 0.2 53.7 53.8 8.1 9.0 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.3 17.9 0.3 59.0 55.7 13.8 15.2 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 16.1 16.0 19.0 0.8 66.0 62.8 14.3 15.1 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 16.0 15.8 19.0 0.7 63.9 61.5 14.1 15.3 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.7 16.2 16.4 0.4 60.4 58.0 14.6 15.4 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 13.6 15.8 17.3 0.2 55.8 53.3 14.0 15.2 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.2 14.0 0.2 52.1 53.8 13.1 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 15.9 16.1 18.1 0.3 59.5 55.1 14.2 15.4 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.2 16.6 0.1 52.4 52.6 12.7 14.2 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.1 13.4 0.2 54.6 54.7 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.5 17.0 19.4 0.7 64.8 60.3 15.0 16.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------