***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 15.4 15.2 18.0 0.0 54.6 53.1 14.6 15.2 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 14.9 14.9 18.1 0.3 58.6 57.0 13.6 14.5 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 17.1 17.1 18.3 0.1 55.7 53.6 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 12.4 11.8 15.4 -0.3 45.5 45.3 11.1 11.9 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 14.2 13.8 15.6 -0.3 46.4 46.0 13.0 13.9 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 11.8 12.2 13.0 -0.5 36.6 39.2 12.0 12.6 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 15.4 15.4 18.3 0.3 59.1 57.0 14.6 15.1 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 8.3 7.6 13.0 -0.3 43.3 44.1 7.3 8.0 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 15.3 15.0 15.9 -0.1 50.1 49.1 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.4 15.1 14.1 -0.2 46.5 46.8 14.1 15.2 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.2 14.6 15.1 -0.3 42.2 43.9 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.1 12.5 14.0 -0.3 41.9 44.1 11.8 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 12.7 13.3 13.7 -0.5 34.5 40.8 13.3 14.0 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 15.9 15.8 15.8 0.0 52.6 51.5 15.0 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.8 16.4 17.1 -0.3 43.3 44.8 15.7 16.7 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 14.2 14.4 14.5 -0.4 38.3 41.5 14.2 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 15.9 16.0 18.2 0.5 62.5 60.7 14.9 15.6 16.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.3 13.5 -0.1 48.8 48.2 12.4 13.4 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 15.0 15.1 18.1 0.2 57.5 56.3 14.2 14.7 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.1 11.1 -0.3 41.7 42.8 8.8 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 15.2 15.0 17.1 -0.2 50.8 48.7 13.7 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 14.9 15.2 18.2 0.5 60.7 59.6 13.9 14.6 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 14.9 14.8 18.0 0.3 57.6 56.5 13.6 14.8 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 15.8 15.9 15.7 0.0 53.3 51.7 14.6 15.6 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 15.2 15.1 16.7 -0.1 53.2 50.1 13.8 15.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 12.8 13.1 13.1 -0.5 36.9 40.5 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 14.8 14.8 17.3 0.0 54.0 51.9 13.5 14.5 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 14.5 13.7 15.7 -0.5 39.2 41.2 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 12.3 11.7 12.6 -0.2 46.8 46.3 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 15.3 15.5 18.3 0.2 57.4 55.8 14.5 15.0 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------