***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 14.9 13.7 15.0 -3.2 4.0 8.1 15.4 15.7 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 96 4 0 100 13.3 10.7 15.0 -3.1 3.9 7.9 15.1 15.7 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 96 4 0 100 15.3 14.2 15.4 -2.9 4.5 9.0 16.8 17.7 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 92 8 0 100 10.8 8.8 12.9 -3.0 4.3 8.7 11.9 13.0 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 93 7 0 100 12.4 10.9 13.7 -2.7 7.3 11.1 13.9 14.7 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 86 14 0 100 11.8 10.3 11.2 -2.2 7.8 14.0 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 98 2 0 100 14.3 11.9 15.1 -3.1 4.0 7.5 15.6 16.0 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 93 7 0 100 6.9 5.2 11.0 -2.4 5.9 11.3 7.7 8.3 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 90 10 0 100 13.9 11.8 13.6 -2.7 4.3 10.3 15.0 15.3 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 91 9 0 100 13.8 12.0 12.0 -2.5 5.2 11.0 14.7 15.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 92 8 0 100 13.4 11.6 13.3 -2.5 5.7 10.9 14.7 15.0 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 92 8 0 100 11.3 10.7 12.0 -2.5 6.5 11.3 12.7 13.3 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 90 10 0 100 13.0 11.4 12.3 -2.3 7.7 14.2 14.3 14.7 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 90 10 0 100 13.7 12.9 13.4 -2.7 4.0 10.8 15.5 16.3 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 95 5 0 100 14.9 13.2 14.5 -3.0 3.4 6.7 16.0 16.4 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 90 10 0 100 14.0 12.3 12.9 -2.3 7.7 12.8 15.2 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 14.4 13.0 14.9 -2.9 4.6 8.7 15.4 16.2 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 92 8 0 100 12.2 10.7 11.5 -2.4 5.5 11.5 13.2 14.0 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 95 5 0 100 13.8 12.0 15.1 -3.0 3.9 8.6 15.1 15.3 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 93 7 0 100 8.0 7.3 9.8 -2.2 7.6 12.6 9.2 10.0 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 91 9 0 100 13.3 11.1 14.7 -2.9 4.0 9.3 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 94 6 0 100 13.2 12.0 15.3 -2.7 4.1 9.6 14.7 15.2 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 94 6 0 100 13.3 12.5 15.2 -2.7 4.4 10.1 14.5 15.0 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 89 11 0 100 13.9 12.4 13.6 -2.5 5.1 11.4 15.1 15.6 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 99 1 0 100 13.6 11.8 14.1 -3.2 4.9 8.1 14.9 15.5 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 89 11 0 100 12.6 12.1 11.5 -2.2 10.6 15.8 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 13.5 10.4 14.5 -3.2 4.5 8.0 14.6 15.3 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 92 8 0 100 12.6 11.1 13.4 -2.9 5.0 8.9 13.8 14.5 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 91 9 0 100 10.7 9.8 10.8 -2.3 6.3 12.1 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 97 3 0 100 13.7 11.9 15.2 -3.1 4.2 7.9 15.4 16.1 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------