***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2012.-29.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 29.8 74.4 46.9 37.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 30.7 33.2 31.4 75.5 43.8 36.9 30.7 36.6 47.6 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 29.3 43.4 30.7 77.0 47.7 39.2 32.5 44.9 61.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 33.1 52.5 29.7 79.7 43.7 41.8 31.1 52.7 70.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 28.1 43.9 29.2 77.7 46.9 41.1 35.6 45.2 56.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 59.0 50.5 39.9 87.7 49.7 45.6 37.6 50.8 67.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 27.0 35.9 32.1 77.3 45.5 37.9 33.1 37.3 54.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 49.0 68.3 31.8 75.5 45.1 37.6 53.5 78.3 97.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 26.0 39.1 30.5 74.9 47.2 39.3 26.9 44.8 66.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 38.1 52.1 34.6 74.9 45.2 37.9 42.2 56.4 93.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 24.2 34.2 24.4 71.5 44.1 37.3 27.5 38.0 53.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 32.0 48.5 23.6 73.9 46.1 38.0 34.7 50.3 73.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 26.0 42.6 28.5 80.4 48.9 41.6 29.0 42.9 47.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 46.5 60.8 39.3 80.6 47.9 39.7 47.3 62.1 81.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 20.5 37.1 25.6 79.0 48.6 42.9 17.8 37.2 51.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 21.6 35.3 26.6 76.8 46.4 40.3 25.2 35.8 42.4 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 30.4 38.0 31.6 77.2 42.5 37.8 35.8 42.3 51.8 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 40.7 58.3 43.0 78.5 47.4 39.2 41.2 60.3 73.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 29.3 40.6 31.2 76.1 45.1 37.1 31.2 41.6 58.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 39.3 54.8 44.6 81.6 45.1 39.7 45.4 56.5 66.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 31.5 42.0 28.0 74.3 45.5 38.9 24.0 52.1 62.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 35.3 48.1 30.9 75.6 42.9 36.5 42.6 50.5 70.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 32.5 46.6 32.2 78.4 47.1 38.3 37.6 48.0 62.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 38.7 56.7 38.1 78.1 46.9 39.4 35.9 62.9 73.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 30.3 44.3 33.9 77.4 45.4 39.4 29.6 46.5 51.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 37.8 29.2 23.4 82.2 53.0 42.9 18.8 28.1 51.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 31.5 47.3 34.7 76.6 46.2 38.3 38.5 47.9 61.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 27.4 41.1 27.7 80.2 46.0 42.6 29.1 44.0 64.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 57.2 70.8 44.0 79.3 45.3 38.9 59.0 74.7 92.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 30.1 32.6 31.3 75.6 45.1 37.0 27.9 38.1 59.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------